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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (35855)	11/6/2009 9:45:29 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78752

ATPG. I'm not sure I understand what "verified" means in "only evaluated once a year". Imo though, you are right regardless. It is a bet on management and management trustworthiness. I don't know if the ATPT guys shop around to get various estimates of reserves, if the "independent" evaluators are evaluating properly, or if the corporate and outside auditors are auditing correctly, honestly, truthfully. (Auditors often audit only the numbers and info given to them by management, imo). Maybe management are liars. And if you're going to lie, might as well lie big. I am going by slide 3 in the Robert and Renshaw conf. It shows -- ie management claims -- NAV to be about $114 per share at PV10. phx.corporate-ir.net I just arbitrarily take 65% of that to get to roughly after tax of $74/sh. That is one high NAV number compared to current stock price. (NAV's come down a little with latest published info, but still very high, >$60/sh You bring out a possible good issue. Where is common sense with this thing? If we can't trust management (trust management's numbers I'm talking about here. Although also to a different but still significant extent management's ability to finance operations and deliver oil), then ATPG should be avoided. The extreme opposite case, maybe the worst case, would to make a big bet on ATPG -- perhaps I show my naivety and gullibleness by so doing. Maybe if someone were willing to bet on the company and management, it should at best be only for a small wager, at least at this time. At least until some of the oil prospects become actualities. Others will make their decisions; I make mine. I've been wrong many, many times. And with this company as well.