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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (45825)	11/10/2009 3:58:10 PM
From: The Ox	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

I just don't see us seeing the kind of stock appreciation that led to the SOX reaching 1362 in early 2000. I agree but wouldn't rule out the possibility that the SOX gets at least half way there, iow, 6 or 7 hundred (or a double from here). The moves off the lows tend to be about 16 to 18 months in duration (96-97, 98-00, 02-03). With this in mind, we are 12 months into the move and may have at least another 4 to 6 months at a minimum. Considering the washout nature of last year's lows, I would consider the possibility that we could have an extended period of rebound ahead of us. The SOX has doubled off the low and I think there is a chance for another double to be had (or 4x off the Nov 08 low). With relatively low inventories in the system combined with the reluctant spending thus far in the SCE sector, we may be seeding the 'green shoot' setup for a longer term fundamental improvement/expansion. The slope of the gain may be more muted but the improvement in company bottom lines may extend for a longer period of time then we've seen in past rebounds. jmo TO

To: Return to Sender who wrote (45825)	11/10/2009 4:51:16 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95572

RtS, I certainly agree with your sentiments regarding the 1998 period. It's true we could have a V shaped recovery like we did in 1998 but I just don't see us seeing the kind of stock appreciation that led to the SOX reaching 1362 in early 2000. There were many issues of all types that came together in that period of time to cause a "bubble", the likes of which will probably never come to pass again in my lifetime. Looking at your chart, the SOX has been mostly in the 300 to 500 range from late 02 thru 08. Gottfried's chart he just posted on unemployment showed some pretty good stats during that period, and the monthly postings of Bookings and Billings(while volatile) averaged about 15B per month. First of all, we need to get back to that kind of employment and semi-equip sales to see where the SOX will trade under those kind of conditions. IMO that is going to take quite awhile. There is plenty of time for another "breakdown" in the "market", if it wants to do that, prior to responding in an upward direction based on seeing better employment and semi sales reaching the 02 to 08 period. Thanks for supporting this board RtS with all your charts and other postings you make on a repetitive basis. I like to see them, the more the better - thanks again for your time and effort. Don