Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (24330)	11/16/2009 1:41:32 PM
From: ayn rand	Respond to of 71456

$2,000 Gold Prediction ...................................... Hey good news everyone. The heads of state at the APEC summit decided on Sunday to sort this whole Global Financial Crisis. "We resolved that we would aim to overcome the crisis within 18 months," the Wall Street Journal reports from the statement by the leaders of the 21 Asia-Pacific nations. "Economic recovery is not yet on a solid footing...We will maintain our economic-stimulus policies until a durable economic recovery has clearly taken hold." That's fantastic! Just 18 more months before we can put all of this behind us. Why didn't they aim to overcome the crisis a year ago? Oh well. Better late than never. Of course, it is possible the leaders of the APEC nations have no idea what to do, and certainly don't agree on how to manage their currencies. The Journal reports that everyone is badgering the Americans and the Chinese to quit their cozy currency arrangement. America has effectively devalued the dollar with low interest rates, and the Chinese have matched the devaluation because of the semi-formal currency peg. The results is a global race to the bottom, otherwise known as competitive currency devaluation. Exporting nations must mimic the Fed and keep rates low (or sell their own currencies and buy dollars) to stay competitive. It suits China and America for different reasons. America's weak dollar hasn't exactly helped exports like everyone expected. In fact, the trade deficit widened last month on a weaker dollar, mostly due to huge oil imports. But as long as U.S. interest rates are kept low, the housing market will not implode. The weak dollar suits the Fed. And a weak Yuan suits the Chinese for now. They remain the world's low cost producers. And their goods get even cheaper when the Yuan declines with the dollar. More market share is good for Chinese producers. But it doesn't make any other exporters trying to compete in manufactured or consumer goods very happy. About the only people, or metal, made happy by the current state of affairs is gold. The weekend edition of the Australian Financial Review has gold on the cover, incidentally. You can see a picture of it a few paragraphs down. Underneath the giant golden letters it reads, "Why you shouldn't laugh about gold hitting $US2000 an oz." But if anyone's laughing, it's a nervous laughter. Why? Well, the fact that the gold made the cover of the AFR confirmed our view that it was an excellent month to research uranium stocks. That's just what Diggers and Drillers editor Alex Cowie did. He published his first report as the full-time editor of Diggers and Drillers on Friday. It was on uranium, including one specific recommendation. We talked with Alex about whether to write about gold this month or uranium. Trouble is, he'd already written about gold in October. We've been getting a lot of questions here at the DR about gold. The gold price is making new highs in U.S. dollars ($1,123.40 in the futures market last week), but hasn't carried over into Aussie dollar. The strong Aussie dollar has capped the Aussie gold price for now. November 16th, 2009 Dan Denning - author of 2005's best-selling The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons). - based in Melbourne. - managing editor of resource newsletter Diggers and Drillers and the editor of The Daily Reckoning Australia.

To: gregor_us who wrote (24330)	11/16/2009 2:37:26 PM
From: RockyBalboa	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

>>>> Achieving their goals... complete destruction of monetary wealth. UPDATE 1-Central banks achieving their goals - ECB's Quaden BRUSSELS, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Exceptional measures taken by central banks to combat the economic crisis appear to be working but any early exit may risk a relapse, European Central Bank Governing Council member Guy Quaden said on Monday. In a speech to a Belgian financial conference, Quaden said short-term steps introduced to counteract the crisis needed to be unwound at the right time and pace, saying there was no pre-defined sequence in which the unwinding should take place. "Crisis prevention will soon have to take over from crisis management," he said. "This will require both a timely exit from the exceptional measures taken to stabilise the financial system and the economy, and the implementation of fundamental reforms to remedy the structural defects exposed by the crisis." The timing of the exit would depend on financial market developments and conditions in the real economy, he said. Too early an exit from such an accommodative monetary policy stance would risk a relapse, he said, with the potential for renewed problems in the financial sector and damage to the real economy, including a threat of deflation. "Too late an exit would sow the seeds for new financial excesses, with a risk of inflation," he said. "The sequencing of the exit is not pre-defined, nor is its end-point, and will depend on developments in financial markets and in the real economy." In terms of exit strategies, Quaden said he could envisage the gradual phasing-out of non-standard measures first, "like a discontinuation of one-year refinancing operations or a lower frequency for three-month and six-month refinancing operations." Economists expect that despite signs of economic recovery, the ECB will keep interest rates at a record-low 1 percent until late 2010 because inflation is low and inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank's price stability target. (Reporting by Antonia van de Velde; writing by Luke Baker; editing by Dale Hudson) ((Brussels newsroom; +32 2 287 6810)) Keywords: ECB QUADEN/ <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

To: gregor_us who wrote (24330)	11/16/2009 7:53:14 PM
From: Amark$p	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71456

Hugh Hendry on a roll... investorsinsight.com:80/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/11/16/eclectica-november-fund-commentary.aspx

To: gregor_us who wrote (24330)	11/17/2009 8:57:37 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	2 Recommendations Respond to of 71456

"What if the breakout in gold above 1000 is like the INDU when it finally broke out in 82/83 after going nowhere since 1966?" well, already you know this is not the case because you didn't have a whole cottage industry of people slobbering about the DOW breakout in the early 80s. the sentiment towards gold at $1130 is much more positive than the sentiment towards DOW in 1982. assuming gold is in a bull market like stocks in the 80s, the breakout occurred at $250 some yrs ago already. that is where he should be counting from. that puts gold today around DOW 4000 circa 1995. so maybe gold can triple from here based on this logic.