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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (10195)	11/1/1997 1:16:00 AM
From: Stefan	Respond to of 70976

Do you work for AMAT?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (10195)	11/1/1997 9:03:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

I'd appreciate comments from our Bears on this post. Dave D., Big Bucks, this mean you<G> This is an excerpt from the 11/3 edition of Barron's. TIA Dan Hutcheson, president of VLSI Research, a San Jose firm that tracks the semiconductor-equipment industry, reckons that investors have been handed a buying opportunity. The biggest concern for the equipment sector, Hutcheson says, has been the potential for a slowdown in demand from Taiwan, which recently has snapped up about 15% of global chipmaking gear, up from 11%-12% a year ago. "People think Taiwan has overbuilt, that they'll crash," he says. Most of what the Taiwanese chipmakers produce, though, ends up in goods sold in the U.S. and Europe -- not Taiwan or Hong Kong or Malaysia. Not only that, but Hutcheson believes the drive by Taiwanese chip producers to build market share will overshadow their profitability concerns. "They'll spend whether they make money or not," Hutcheson contends. "People tend to overlay an American bottom-line orientation over Asian economies. It's the same mistake we made during the Vietnam War." The real issue for the Taiwanese, Hutcheson says, has been how they'll fund their insatiable demand for chipmaking gear. Hutcheson says some U.S. equipment leasing firms, including Comdisco and General Electric's GE Capital unit, have stepped in to provide financing for the purchase of high-priced hardware used in chip-making plants. The bottom line, Hutcheson says, is that the sound and fury over the Asian crisis signifies nothing for most chip-equipment firms. Concludes Hutcheson: "We've looked at it closely, and we see no significant effect." Hutcheson expects global chip-equipment sales to grow 21% next year, up from just 5% this year. In 1999, Hutcheson predicts, sales growth could hit 30%, propelled by the chip industry's move to parts with smaller and smaller lines, first 0.25 micron from the current 0.35 micron standard, then 0.18 micron in subsequent years. Hutcheson, it turns out, is nearly as optimistic about overall chip demand, forecasting revenue growth of 22.3% in 1998, up from 9.3% this year. "If I were in the business of recommending stocks," he says, "I'd be recommending buying across the board."

To: Big Bucks who wrote (10195)	11/1/1997 3:03:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Big, what do you see interms of FAB automation...I am eyeballing PRIA as a potential winner in that area.....they have recently acquired other companies and are now the dominant player in that area with the #2 company (Difuku)far behind and falling further. Is FAB automation becoming a bigger a major growth area as far as you can see?? dave