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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bread Upon The Water who wrote (125888)11/30/2009 11:34:25 AM
From: cosmicforce  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 542143
 
I mixed the use of expansionism (extending borders) and imperialism (extending influence without respect to physical boundaries). Iran has a territorial dispute with Iraq that flairs up and has a thousand year history of contention. That is a border expansion and you don't nuke territory you want to take back. You might nuke something further away to get it though.

Iran might also resort to defensive blackmail to stave off an attack organized by the US. They might do a first strike on Israel. They could help others do nuclear terrorism to weaken Israel. However, there is plenty of distrust and these ME tribes all see each other as rivals. You don't give a weapon that can be turned back on you to a rival unless you misjudge badly. (We did this more than once).

Terrorism is driven by international reactions WRT Israel and the ME so if it isn't our policy to put the whole US arsenal up for Israel (as it has in the past) we simply won't be a target. We probably can't tip our hand though and say who will and won't get our support. With any changes in our nuclear policy, though, Israel could radicalize and threaten local strategic targets if it gets hit or tactically respond to adjacent military preparation.

It is a effed up mess. For people who are angry at Obama, he is swatting at hornets. If you or I had his intelligence assessments, we might not get much sleep. Israelis have cultivated powerful allies in the US. I think some of these alliances and attitudes are treasonous. I can't see sending my son to die in defense of Israel under any conditions. Neither do I want to see Americans killed because of our international support of Israel. I worry more about Israel than Iran, domestically. If it's Israel that attacks us, it will be false flag and blamed on someone else.