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Politics : Sioux Nation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rock_nj who wrote (182395)	12/10/2009 11:49:51 AM
From: T L Comiskey	Respond to of 362351

re Even if there is an agreement, it will not be adhered to by the signers 'There goes the neighborhood...' digital-photography-school.com

To: Rock_nj who wrote (182395)	12/10/2009 12:33:55 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 362351

Bring it on. Turns out Kyoto works for those with the balls to meet the challenge. The good old American Can't Do spirit doesn't live in Europe. Industrialised countries will collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target Recently the European Union and other industrialised countries have published new national emission inventories through 2005, which were officially submitted to the UN Climate Secretariat (UNFCCC). MNP has summarised the trend in historical emissions for the period 1990-2005 of the group of countries with an emission target under the Kyoto Protocol (so-called Annex I countries to the Kyoto Protocol) and extrapolated the emissions trend of the last five years (Figures 1 and 2). Three groups are distinguished: 1. Countries of the EU-15, for which the European Union also collectively ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1997; 2. Other OECD’90 countries (in particular Japan, Canada and, recently, also Australia); Economies In Transition (EIT) (Russia, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries). Although the USA has not ratified the protocol, it is also shown in the graph for comparison. Total emission reduction target of countries with a Kyoto target: -4.1% From the greenhouse gas emissions reported in 2007 it was calculated that the group of countries that committed themselves to a Kyoto target (now including Australia), collectively will reduce their emissions by 4.1% compared to the base year when they all meet their Kyoto target. If the USA would have joined the other industrialised countries in having an emissions target, the total group figure would have been a 5.1% reduction. The mostly limited contribution of ‘sinks’ (carbon storage in forests and soils) from Land Use Change and Forestry (so-called LUCF) and possible (but usually limited) corrections in response to the expert reviews in 2007 of the national emissions inventories have not been included here, lacking completeness in reports on officially accepted emissions and carbon sink data. Limited increase in OECD countries; large reduction in Russia and Eastern Europe The greenhouse gas emissions of the EU-15 has been almost constant over the last 15 years (-1.5% in 2005), while emissions of other OECD countries increased by 15% on average (6.9% for Japan and about 25% for Canada, Australia and New Zealand). In contrast, emissions of the EIT countries (Russia and Eastern and Central Europe) decreased by 35% on average compared to their base year (Figure 1). Figure 1. Emission trend (left) and extrapolation and comparison with the Kyoto target (right) for groups of countries with a Kyoto target (source: UNFCCC). Assuming that greenhouse gas emissions of these three groups of countries will continue according to the trend shown for the past five years, the image emerges as shown in the right-hand side of Figure 1, where the result of a linear extrapolation of the 2000-2005 trend to 2010 is compared with the Kyoto targets for the 2010 (i.e. the average of the 2008-2012 period). Greenhouse gas emissions of the EU-15, which decreased slightly (-1.5%) over the last 15 years, are expected in 2010 to remain lower than the base year and close to the Kyoto target of 8% reduction. Total emissions of other OECD countries with a Kyoto target are expected to continue to increase on average by about 0.5% per year, whereas the Kyoto targets of its largest countries Japan and Canada are -6% and for Australia it is +8%. Also emissions of the EIT countries (Russia and Eastern Europe), in 2005 in total 35% below their base year level, are expected to continue to increase by over 1% per year on average, while there Kyoto targets are +1% (Russia and Ukraine, accounting for more than 2/3 of the EIT total in 2005) or -8% (other Central and Eastern European countries) (Figure 1). Industrialised countries will meet collective Kyoto target for 2010 The group industrialised countries with a Kyoto target will probably meet their emission limitation requirements of about 4% reduction. This target will even be met without accounting for the so-called CDM projects that aim at emission reductions in developing countries and fast growing economies and which reduction may be accounted for as part of the national Kyoto target (Figure 2). When linearly extrapolating the trend of the last five years to 2010 (the average of the Kyoto target period 2008-2012), the emission reduction in 2010 of this group as countries will be close to 11%. When including all 2800 CDM projects “in the pipeline”, which account for approximately 500 megatonne (= million) CO2 equivalent per year, the total reduction may even be as large as 15%. The collective reduction of 11%, expected under the assumption listed above, is due to the limited increase in emissions in OECD countries (e.g. a stabilisation in the European Union for the last 10 years) and in particular due to the large reduction of about 40% until 1999 in the Economies In Transition (EIT) (Russia, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries). In the EIT countries, as a result of their economic recovery, greenhouse gas emissions started to increase again (at an average rate of 1% per year), while the Kyoto target of the largest countries is +1% and -8% for the smaller countries (see Figure 1). The latter also aids that the present EU-27 meets its collective Kyoto target. pbl.nl