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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekgk who wrote (6829)	11/2/1997 12:29:00 PM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

I just found: techstocks.com Looks like someone else is thinking is similar to mine from what I can surmise. I am off to find a copy of the NY Times to see what they have to say.

To: tekgk who wrote (6829)	11/2/1997 12:59:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 18056

Tekgk, skip the details just tell me how to get rich quick-g-. Thanks for your very informative and intelligent posts. Mike

To: tekgk who wrote (6829)	11/2/1997 1:40:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

tekgk, great round-up of monetary cross-flows across the international boundaries. You said: The first and largest is the yen carry trade. This involves borrowing in yen at around 1% and investing in U.S. Treasury notes at around 6%. The yield spread can and is being amplified with leverage. It worked very well for awhile, but an anticipated decline in the dollar will keep new money from entering and will eventually cause existing investors to exit very quickly or face horrendous losses once the return to the long term trend resumes. May be I am hung-up too much on this one issue alone. But I think that if the dollar weakens 6% of more against the Yen, this could bring an avalanche of selling in treasuries and the liquidity problems could worsen sending the markets in to tail-spin. Last week $ was not particularly strong against the Yen. BTW, do you know how exposed are the Latin American countries like Brazil and Chile to the $ and/or US treasuries. The way I also see it, as someone else pointed out here on the BK thread, is that the stock market turmoil in Brazil could hasten repatriation of their assets from the US. After all, keeping aside all the flight to quality talk (i.e. buying US stocks dumping far east and latin American securities) I have tough time accepting that the Japanese and other nations Govts would rather rescue their economies than keeping their assets liquid by stocking in the US markets. Yes, I am speculating. Your logic that $ can be dumped in favor of Euro sounds plausible. But, aren't we a bit far away for that? Once again, a great post and thanks for sharing your wisdom with us. Best regards. -Mohan

To: tekgk who wrote (6829)	11/2/1997 5:40:00 PM
From: Mark Bartlett	Respond to of 18056

Tekgk, << If this kind stuff is too long or of no interest - let me know and I'll stop. Thanks for your time and patience.>> On the contrary, it is fascinating ..... keep it up - your insights and depth of perception are laudable. MB

To: tekgk who wrote (6829)	11/2/1997 9:23:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

tekgk, >>The list goes on and on - we are not supreme in any market other than CPU processors and software. Thanks for your enjoyable readings. I will take you to task on you statement of above. There are many markets we are supreme in, what about our systems capabilities to design and build aircraft type of systems including the leading edge components of these systems. What about our ability to design and build energy systems like dams, power plants, etc. and export this capability to the rest of the world. What about our ability to build out infrastructors like communications. Another area I think we have been and are going to be leading edge is in developing new materials. Have a good evening, Joan

To: tekgk who wrote (6829)	11/3/1997 3:40:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18056

tekgk: That's mostly impressive sounding stuff, most of which I don't understand. But I thought a weaker dollar will bring higher profits to the big US multi-national companies (for products manufactured in the US and sold in foreign countries). Haven't we been hearing all Summer about the strong dollar overseas hurting US multi-national corp. profits? So the reverse should also be true. And higher profits generally mean revised earnings (upward) and higher stock prices. Just for the fun of it: a couple of areas that I disagree with you on: >(check out the new electric/gas Toyota combo< Now really, how many people are interested in that sort of thing? Electric means batteries, which means recharging. It's bad enough people have to recharge cell phones, never mind the thought of recharging your car. Americans place a high priority on convenience, and recharging your car battery every night isn't real convenient! Particularly when the benefit of electric cars is ? to automobile owners. The incredible Sony entry into Mobil communications market spells fear, panic and doom for Motorola investors. Ever hear of Ericsson or Nokia (Sweden and Finland, respectively)? Ericsson has had 100% year-over-year growth in mobile handset sales for two quarters in a row, while Nokia has the world market share leadership for digital cellular handsets - over 50% of the world market share, to be exact. NEC has a nice phone also. To be honest, I've never heard of Sony's new phone. But in any case, Sony has a loooonnggggg way to go to overtake the cell phone leaders, which certainly do include Motorola.

To: tekgk who wrote (6829)	11/3/1997 10:25:00 AM
From: Jack Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Tekgk: I am new at this on-line discussion stuff, but I was extremely impressed by your beautiful overview of a complex situation. Your explanation was easier to understand than Jim Grant's. I notice that the Foreign Holders of US debt has declined more than usual lately : -7,548 billion or so last two weeks as compared with +25,000 (next to last page of Barron's Market Week section). What, if anything does this mean? Please keep up the good work! What does IMHO mean? also -g- ? Any reference for on line shorthand? Best regards, Jack Clarke