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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (233701)	12/18/2009 3:21:26 PM
From: Skip Danger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Thanks for your comments, I read your blog every day. Really, I just wondered what these folks thought of the market since the big push is overwith. My take is that October probably is down, and is starting the next leg down. If not Oct surely Nov. As you know, the tax credit/credits have artificially inflate prices by 6-8 percent, so there will be some catch-up to do, sometime.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (233701)	12/22/2009 5:38:49 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

CR: I can't believe yoru view on housing is so static. I'm sorry, but the conclusion you make is utterly baseless. What part of housing is correlated to the economy, jobs, household formation, availability of loans, and affordability are we missing here? Every one of those factors is markedly improved. This is factual based on payrolls, Fed Survey data, price vs. mortgage rates, etc. <<<A few more comments: Months-of-supply will now increase sharply as sales plunge. Do not be fooled because months-of-supply is close to "normal" levels. This is primarily because sales were distorted by the tax credit. Excess inventory includes existing home inventory, rental units (vacancy at record high), and various shadow inventory. This is still near record levels. House prices are now falling again - and this will show up in the Case-Shiller index soon. This is probably the end of the "good" housing news for a while. >>>

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (233701)	12/29/2009 11:43:57 AM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 306849

House prices stall, consumer confidence up On Tuesday December 29, 2009, 10:55 am By Burton Frierson NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rose to a three-month high in December, while prices in the hard-hit housing sector stalled in October, breaking a five-month string of gains. The consumer confidence reading released on Tuesday reinforced views that the economy is gradually recovering, and the October housing data from the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller indexes was seen as indicating the market is stabilizing. The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to a reading of 52.9 in December from a revised 50.6 in November as job market pessimism eased and consumers' expectations reached a two-year high. "There were some small signs of weakness, but all in all, it's a better number. It continues the trend of the U.S. economy improving," said Camilla Sutton, senior currency strategist, Scotia Capital in Toronto Despite some signs of optimism, consumers in December rated their present situation the worst since February 1983, according to the Conference Board. The U.S. economy has been struggling to rebound from the worst recession in decades. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones (DJI:^DJI - News) and broad Standard & Poor's 500 index (^SPX - News) edged higher. Government bonds, which usually perform better in weak economic times, were slightly higher on the day ahead of another auction of government debt. CONFIDENCE GAME The consumer confidence index beat analysts' forecast of 52.5, which was based on a Reuters poll that ranged from 46.0 to 57.0. Last month's reading was also revised higher from an originally reported 49.5. The expectations index rose to 75.6 -- the highest since December 2007 -- from 70.3 in November. Consumers' labor market assessment also showed some signs of improvement, with the "jobs hard to get" index decreasing to 48.6 from 49.2. Consumers rated their present situation the worst since February 1983, with that index falling to 18.8 from 21.2. The "jobs plentiful" index also fell, dropping to 2.9 -- also its lowest since February 1983 -- from 3.1. In housing, the S&P composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was flat in October, falling short of expectations for a rise of 0.2 percent according to a Reuters survey. September's index was revised upward to a gain of 0.4 percent, from a previously reported 0.3 percent. Only seven of the 20 cities in the composite index had month-over-month gains in prices in October, S&P said. A sustained upturn in home prices is seen vital in the fledgling rebound in the hardest hit housing market since the Great Depression. There has been growing concern that record-high levels of foreclosures will mount even further and depress prices anew. "The report signals that we have a growing stabilization in house prices. Obviously it's at a very slow pace and that is because the market is still saddled with a significant amount of inventory," said Anna Piretti, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. "We're likely to see some negative cross currents come into home prices in November, but that doesn't really change the trend -- the trend should be toward stabilization." S&P said the annual rate of price declines improved, with the 20-city index dropping 7.3 percent from a downwardly revised 9.3 percent in September. A 7.2 percent downturn was forecast in the Reuters survey. All 20 metropolitan areas and both the 20-city and 10-city indexes showed smaller rates of decline in October compared with September. (Additional reporting by Lynn Adler, Emily Flitter and Steven C. Johnson; Editing by Leslie Adler)