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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (234028)	12/22/2009 7:02:09 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 306849

My views aren't static. I'm not anywhere near as worried as I was in 2005 and 2006. All I wrote today was that people shouldn't be fooled by the decline in months-of-supply. We aren't approaching a normal market with 4 to 6 months of supply. Well, duh. We all know November existing home sales were goosed by buyers rushing to meet the initial homebuyer tax credit deadline. So when sales drop sharply in December (and they will), months-of-supply will increase. That almost isn't worth noting - it is so obvious. On the excess inventory, some people only think in terms of 'existing home inventory' and forget all the other measures of excess housing. That is just another obvious point. And I also pointed out that house prices are now falling again. Well, duh. That is just a fact. So I'm not sure what bothers you. I wrote in early July that we would get about 6 months of "good" housing data on existing home sales and prices, and then the data would turn flat to down again. Ta da ... here it comes. And if you think I'm only negative. Nope. I called the bottom in housing starts and new home sales early this year. But I also pointed out the recovery in housing starts would be sluggish (I think correctly). I don't claim any great insights - I was just stating the obvious. best wishes