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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59215)	12/20/2009 9:14:24 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218160

I researched Saxo's previous annual predictions....not too accurate, but that it is the nature of taking specific positions on events to be. I like P2'a thinking. When a professional prophet makes predictions, only the few that come to pass are mentioned. The many that are flat wrong never seem to make the light of day. With that in mind, here are a few of mine: 1. Sovereign trouble, begun with Dubai, then rolling into Greece and Spain, then perhaps the UK, then into another SHTF moment, is possible. 2. I know you don't want to hear this, but I see trouble for China. Its model is to produce cheaply, save, export and finance the customer. But without healthy markets into which to export, growth and prosperity will inevitably come to a standstill. In addition, China does not have independent energy sources, particularly oil, and this is definitely required. Plus, it is becoming, perhaps by necessity, the most Keynesian polity in the world. The incipient or already existing bubbles will be deadly when they burst. I don't like to see what I think is happening to China for it is not good for the globe. But it does bring me to the third point. 3. The combination of sovereign trouble with a possible crash in China when bubbles pop, means that it is possible that 2010 - particularly at its latter months - may be a repeat of 2008. 4. And I also think, and I think I can say this with great confidence, that no one will remember this except me, and only if I am halfway right. vbg.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59215)	12/20/2009 11:21:53 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218160

Is it possible that the decline in electricity use in China is caused mostly by the shut down to Aluminum plants, and not as much a cool down of the general economy ?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59215)	12/21/2009 1:12:40 AM
From: dybdahl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218160

Saxo Bank was founded as one of the first online trading systems for consumers, and still is, but it is still a small bank. The CEO of Saxo Bank has many interesting opinions, but when debating with the CEO of ATP, one of the largest institutional investors in Europe, he often seems uninformed.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59215)	12/21/2009 8:23:25 PM
From: Taikun	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218160

The Prophet Doug Kass on gold (as Black Swan's Taleb says, a monkey throwing darts will produce better returns): Doug Kass posted his 20 Surprises for 2010 today and number four is, “The price of gold topples” - Kass wrote, “Gold’s price plummets to $900 an ounce by the beginning of second quarter 2010. Unhedged, publicly held gold companies report large losses, and the gold sector lies at the bottom of all major sector performers. Hedge fund manager John Paulson abandons his plan to bring a new dedicated gold hedge fund to market.” goldalert.com And last year: "20 Surprises for 2009" article. Prediction number 7: "Commodities markets remain subdued. Despite an improving domestic economy, a further erosion in the Western European and Chinese economies weighs on the world's commodities markets. Gold never reaches $1,000 an ounce and trades at $500 an ounce at some point during the year. (Gold-related shares are among 2009's worst stock market performers.) The price of crude oil briefly rallies early in the year after a step up in the violence in the Middle East but trades in a broad $25 to $65 range for all of 2009 as President Obama successfully introduces aggressive and meaningful legislation aimed at reducing our reliance on imported oil. The price of gasoline briefly breaches $1.00 a gallon sometime in the year. The U.S. dollar outperforms most of the world's currencies as the U.S. regains its place as an economic and political powerhouse wealth-ed.com