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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Gravenor who wrote (4021)	11/3/1997 6:30:00 PM
From: SofaSpud	Respond to of 24933

Donald / Nova I looked at the company a year or so ago for a portfolio I manage. Looks like lots of potential that is underperforming in a big way. In my very humble opinion, part of the problem is the corporate culture. They've tried very hard to introduce entrepreneurial spirit, but by and large the culture still seems to be that of Alberta Gas Trunk Line -- a regulated monopoly. I base that more on talking to current and former employees than anything else, but that's a strong message you get -- stifling bureaucracy. If the company is broken up, you might be able to get more than the current price. I doubt that management really wants to break it up, but I'm also sure that, at some point, someone is going to put a gun to their heads and make them do SOMETHING for shareholder value. Now hopefully this comment opens the door for some loyal Nova employee to come and defend the company with a more informed opinion than mine. As for Petro-Can, I have some shares in the portfolio, and Hibernia seems positive for some upside. I'm holding the shares, but it's in part because I don't have a better alternative right now. As a native Calgarian, I simply cannot bring myself to give a rah, rah story on PetroCan -- it should never have been created, and there were enormous problems to be overcome when they were privatized. Even I have to admit, though, that Stanford has done a good job of delivering value to the shareholders in the last couple of years. Kerm likes the company - maybe he can give you an ungrudging endorsment.

To: Donald Gravenor who wrote (4021)	11/4/1997 7:32:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24933

Donald / Pipeline vs Integrated Oil I see David replied and I must say, a very well qualified answer at that. Let me expand on Petro-Canada. The reason I like the company is the upside potental in share value --- in comparison to the other integrateds. Otherwise, within its category, I favor the company over its peers at this time. Hibernia is a stepping stone into the future of Petro-Canada. It is estimated Hibernia will flow oil over a 19 year period, yield net production to PCA amounting to about 12,000 bbl's/d in 1998 and doubling to about 24,000 in 1999 when the field reaches full potential. Those are nice numbers. What's more, the oil is high quality light crude - having an API gravity of 32-34 degrees. Right behind Hibernia is the Terra Nova Project. This field has been estimated to contain about 30% oil in place in comparison to Hibernia. However, PCA has a 34.2% interest in Terra Nova compared to 20% interest in Hibernia. Production is expected prior to year 2001. In terms of longer term holding for appreciation, this is a great situation for an investor. Also worth noting, long term debt is not a problem. The other integrated's have enjoyed a good run-up in share prices. But, I would hesitate to further increase positions at this time. I really do not like the heavy ties of the others regarding heavy oil production. It is true that technology has lowered cost of producing heavy oil, but it still is not as low as I would desire to see. Bottom line between PCA and the "others" is the new production base of light crude from the two new projects off eastern shores vs the heavy oil base of the others. If you want an opinion, I would trade out of Shell at this point and reinvest into Petro-Canada. In regards to NOVA, I would switch to shares in a senior oil and gas producer -- not necessarily common shares. Check with your financial advisor and find out what's available that yields a dividend and at the same time, proides good upside share potential. The one senior oil that I believe has a cemented future is Talisman Energy. (People here have heard that a thousand times) Take the time to review the analyst section in my week in review komments at Kerm's Korner. You will find information pertaining to the subjects I have mentioned in this reply. Hope this helps or, just generates something to consider. Start on page 15 at exchange2000.com and read forward. There arew 22 pages in total.

To: Donald Gravenor who wrote (4021)	11/4/1997 9:44:00 AM
From: HAZ	Respond to of 24933

Donald / Nova and Petro Canada I have owned Nova for a few years now and I have traded PCA ever since it's IPO. The peak for Nova was $ 15 about 2 years ago (which I missed) and ever since it has traded in the 11-13 range. If I had enough money and guts I could make a living buying 100,000 shares at 11 and selling those shares at 13. Throw in 0.40 in annual dividends and some covered call options and you get an investment that can possibly return 20 % per year. The stock is very liquid and you can trade in & out very easily. As for the stock's prospects, I think the company is looking at splitting itself up only because they are starting to face competition in the pipeline business and they know there will be some short term pain in the stock price. The splitting news has breathed some life into the stock and has taken the spotlight off the proposed Alliance pipeline. Nova is making allot of noise over Alliance but at the end of the day, Alliance will move forward, maybe not in its present form. The CND O&G producers need the pipes to ship to the US and get a better prices for our abundant gas commodity. Ask yourself this question "who is selling millions of shares of Nova every day " IMO Nova will be better after competition but there will be some pain. I have recently sold my Nova shares around 13. Who knows we may get another chance to buy it around 11 again. ============== Petro Canada Very good company, very positive 97 results, everything is working at 99% efficiency, Hybernia production is immanent, no bad news on the horizon, what could possibly go wrong ? 1 - A very warm winter (compliments of El Nino) and gas prices tumble again. 2 - Technical problems with Hybernia, icebergs, ice build up, bad weather delays, in general mother nature in her infinite wisdom. 3 - Government melding in gasoline pricing and regulation or gasoline wars 4 - continued increased F&D costs and reduced netbacks 5 - economic slowdown (witness South East Asia slowdown) and commodity price declines) IMO I think we are a top for PCA, I'm hoping we are anyway since I just sold my shares at 29. I realize I may sound overly negative, but I have been investing for 20 years and my experience tells me that just when everything looks the rosiest something always comes along to knock you down. In summary both are very good stocks, it just depends on your risk tolerance and whether you like to trade or hold for the long term. Cheers and good investing

To: Donald Gravenor who wrote (4021)	11/4/1997 10:52:00 AM
From: SofaSpud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24933

Donald / Nova, PetroCan A couple of thoughts prompted by some of the other feedback you've received: - another potential negative for Hibernia = parrafin - if you'd like to keep a pipeline component in the portfolio, you might take a look at TransCanada Pipelines. I inherited the position from my predecessor, so I don't claim to know the company as well as I might, but it has performed extremely well and seems to be quite well managed. Worth a look if you're looking for a conservative dividend stock with some growth prospects.