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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Runomo™ who wrote (46556)	1/23/2010 1:20:09 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95444

You ask some very good questions which I am sure is on everyone's mind, including mine, about what is happening in this semi equipment sector. <<Are these permanent grounds lost? or a comeback with huge potential in the making? that's the interesting question to think about for a semi investor at this point in time.>> Bookings have been on a big downward slide since 2006. The chip sector has been improving nicely for the last many months with revenues back up to the levels attained in 05/06. Capital equipment spending has been decreasing until the bottom seen last March, and since then the uptrend has been in place, but the Bookings level is still less than 1/2 of what they were back in the 04 to 07 era. Now we have a big, big downgrade of the capital equipment sector by Citigroup this past week. Message 26265362 The reasoning given is that the first half of 10 will be good due to "pull ins" from the last half of 10 and 11. This seems to be ridiculous thinking based on the expected need to recover from the very long previous period of low capital spending. Either there are forces at work that we don't see, and the Citigroup prediction comes true or we will see a very good 10 and 11. Right now, the "market" is believing the naysayers of the sector and the price trends are down. Don