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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARAKIS: HIGH RISK OIL PLAY (AKSEF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry Novenstern who wrote (7226)	11/4/1997 2:21:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9164

I guess we were all hoping that the US was about to lighten up vis-a-vis Sudan, but it sounds as if the Clinton Adminstration has decided it's time to make some touhg-sounding statements, which can be done about the Sudan without disturbing many Americans. Probably only one person in 1000 has much idea where the Sudan is. These latest announcements do make things worse. For Arakis holders, it mainly means that there's no immediate prospect of a buyout by a major Amewrican oil company. I do wonder what provoked that announcement. There was that renewed interest in Occidental. I guess we just have to wait out the actual development of the oil field, hoping that pipeline gets built according to schedule.

To: Larry Novenstern who wrote (7226)	11/4/1997 2:40:00 PM
From: IceShark	Respond to of 9164

Larry, The updated sanctions are not necessairly "new". I would use the word codified for a portion (there were quite a few unwritten rules floating around). Not sure if the financial items will have much practical effect in the short term, although I wonder about future financing for the pipeline and how funds from the US Banking/debt/equity markets would be traced to any pipeline debt arrangement - in any event it would increase borrowing costs. The commercial restrictions sound bad to me from a technology standpoint, since US companies have the best oil equipment/human skill around. Recall who Kuwait called on when they were staring into hell's gate after the Gulf War. I will let the tech wizards answer how bad this could hurt and how leaky the restrictions would turn out. Again, will make life more difficult and costly. Does this type of US intervention matter? Sure does. When the biggest guy on the block gets madder at you, things in the short term are going to suck; long term depends on how things turn out. So, not a plus for 'ole AKSEF, but not the end of the world, yet. -vbg- Does put the kabosh on any US company bail out of this dog, though. Regards, Dan

To: Larry Novenstern who wrote (7226)	11/4/1997 5:02:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 9164

Larry, welcome to the Arakis thread, where the brave sned Guarang fax machines for his wars and the chicken get in and out of the stock shaking in between. I do not think that the recent bravado will have any impact long term on the stock. The new discovery flowing at a very respectable 15,000 barrels/day will however. I do not know how much this add to the reserves but I would not be surprised if this small chunk is worth much less than about 50 MM Barrels to the reserve. I am surprised the market reacted that tepidly, but then this is ARAKIS after all. Zeev

To: Larry Novenstern who wrote (7226)	11/4/1997 5:02:00 PM
From: John A. Paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9164

Larry: Just my somewhat novice opinion but, here goes: Arakis has always been a mystery as to why so low a stock price when the oil reserves (both known and hoped for) are so high. Underlying all the good news on the oil extraction and future of the pipeline and all is the continuing political question. Every time it looks as though the stock is sure to take off, some political news comes along and stalls the run. Today was a perfect example, with early news, the start of a run, and then the sanctions announcement. And, in my opinion (likely more a guess than an educated opinion), the market has not yet reacted to the sanctions announcement. It looked to me more like people were buying on the earlier news and probably were surprised that they were able to buy around 3 1/4. It appears we are now stuck with the sanctions cloud to hang over us for the indefinite future. We can expect some political statements out of the rebel camp tomorrow to further darken this cloud. Only the wind of the pipeline contract announcement can blow away the cloud, and who knows, maybe the sanctions will delay, confuse, or otherwise compound even that one bright spot that we are all looking for. I think we could see some dismal trading over the next month. Hopefully, our trusted Zeev will log on tonight and give us his analysis of this latest change of events. I look for him to once again be the "2-dollar man." In summary, I think the sanctions are very bad news. But then, what do I know? I have bought and sold this stock at least 10 times over the past 3 years. It has beaten me both ways several times. JP :>(