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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Doren who wrote (92725)2/25/2010 4:18:33 PM
From: Keith Feral  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213182
 
Splits compound gains. There is no reason to think that Apple would be any less volatile at half the share price, or even a quarter of the share price.

IN reality, it's been a long time since the market has had anything to get excited about. I would love to see some big stock prices like GS, MA, AAPL, BLK, and all kinds of other $200 stocks do some splits.



To: Doren who wrote (92725)2/25/2010 5:32:01 PM
From: Trader J1 Recommendation  Respond to of 213182
 
I did a lot of research on splits back in the 90s and early 2000s and the psychological forces with splits are the catalysts ... and really not much all. It is true that nothing truly fundamental changes in the math but when something gets 4x cheaper, it WILL be more attractive to individuals. I have plenty of people I deal with that would love to get into a Google or Apple but aren't willing to because it is "too expensive". Not expensive from a value perspective but from a share price perspective. In most cases, individuals would much rather get 100 shares of a $50 stock as opposed to 25 shares of a $200 stock. What is at play here is the psychology of a split creating artificial valuation.

I have mixed feelings. As someone holding both long shares and 2011 options ... yes please. But from a valuation standpoint, I love the fact that this issue is pricey enough in share price that in can fetch a 15 or lower future P/E.

You could make a share liquidity argument regarding volatility but I have never seen enough evidence to suggest that it will significantly decrease post split.

For the record, I have a hard time believing AAPL would 4:1 split here. And if they do, I would not be surprised to see the valuation increase by 50% in short order due to the "cheaper share" psychology. Unfortunately though, I would probably then have to unload my calls into any significant run.

Cheers all if it is true.

tJ



To: Doren who wrote (92725)2/25/2010 9:28:09 PM
From: Sr K1 Recommendation  Respond to of 213182
 
>> some investors react irrationally to splits <<

There are people who think what is 12.5x before a split (using 3 PM pricing today, or 200/16) would be about 11x after a 4:1 split.

Splits cost a company money, not just the up-front cost of distributing it, but the ongoing listing fees.

It's like throwing money away.