To: mugicha who wrote (21138 ) 11/4/1997 6:58:00 PM From: Maverick Respond to of 61433
Although there is no downgrade recently, the stock keeps getting beaten up. As I eluded to last week, there would be good news. Now that mgmt is comfortable with this qtr and gives guidance for FY98 in a straightforward and conservative manner, it still gets beaten up. It's pretty much "damn if you don't, and also damn if you do". This is the first time in ASND's history that mgmt comes out and says it's comfortable w/ the qtr this early (just finished the first mo. of the qtr.). It's interesting that analysts still maintain a target of at least $47 for the next 12-18 mos, which hasn't helped the stock at all. Usually a stock is punished for having poor visibility but the 9704 has good visibility and 98 guidance is conservative. I've seen cos. deliberately guide the rev. growth down to build backlog and visibility going forward to be rewarded later when DSO, BB ratio, rev., and Ops margin are above expectation. Mgmt is willing to take a beating now for the sake of future and rebuilding a relationship w/ the investment community. IMHO, ASND is unjustly beaten up. BAY was beaten down to $15 for having 5 straight qtrs of contracting rev. while COMS was for having 2 straight bad qtrs with INTC eating its lunch. Especially, the fear on COMS was lower margin, lower rev. However, COMS recovered by gaining market share for selling higher volume at lower ASPs. ASND may gain market share if it manages the price correctly with higher volume. TNT is still the densest, most scalable, versatile RAS out there w/ good performance too. GRF1600/400, GX550, and CBX500 are winning mindshare at carriers and telcos, among other things. Soon mgmt will unveil the TNT that supports voice+data+fax and a new 56K standard, which will help lift the 98 rev. FR that supports voice will come later. 155Mb/s FR will be announced in a few months. The current FR switches from various vendors currently support up to 45Mb/s.