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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Smith who wrote (132893)	3/12/2010 10:41:41 AM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 542910

I don't buy the idea that people will like the bill after it is passed since the thing is designed to not take effect for a couple years.....we'll have the 2010 and the 2012 election before it starts. A couple of quick points on this one, Paul. First, the best indication that the bill will be a political winner is the frenzy with which the Republicans attack it and the process. If they thought it was a political loser, they would go silent; wouldn't hear a thing from them. Their frantic bit of throwing everything including the kitchen sink at it shows just how worried they are that it will pass. Second, several things do kick in right away. It's my understanding that the ban against kicking people off healthcare insurance for pre-conditions immediately becomes illegal as does the recission stuff. I suspect there are more things that will be helpful as well. As for Dem losses in November, I agree with you on the historical loss argument and on the mood of the country but I disagree that passing healthcare won't have any effect on that mood. It's going to help the Dems, as the Republicans clearly see. I don't think Caddell can be labeled as a "Republican" cautioning the Democrats. He is an independent Democrat. Don't know what he calls himself now but he takes and advocates Republican positions. At any rate, I meant that sentence to say Republicans do that. I'm much less concerned about correctly labeling Caddell, than making a point about Reps.

To: Paul Smith who wrote (132893)	3/12/2010 11:05:10 AM
From: Katelew	Respond to of 542910

I don't buy the idea that people will like the bill after it is passed since the thing is designed to not take effect for a couple years.....we'll have the 2010 and the 2012 election before it starts. I think it could go either way. I agree with you that Dems are running a risk if they pass something the public is NOW opposed to. But the subsidies, if they stay the same as are now posted on the govt. website, are so generous the public could turn completely around and embrace the plan once they realize how much money it could put in their pocket. In my state, the levels of subsidization (as now proposed) would subsidize probably 98% of those households who are currently self-insured. I would bet these numbers would be true for all southern and midwest states. Even in northwest states like Oregon and WA where incomes are higher, my guess is that at least 80% of the currently self-insured would receive at least a 70% subsidy. And in the remaining states, probably half. The other thing that could get more of the public behind the plan very quickly is that the proposed "firewalls" are weak and will prove to be no obstacle for small businesses who currently offer insurance to their employees to drop the coverage they had been offering. So the majority of small business owners in the country, as soon as they figure this out, could get behind the plan. This last point is one reason I'm opposed to the plan. The assumption now is that it will help only the 45 million or so that are uninsured. And the cost to the government is based on this number. It seems to me, however, that it will end up 'helping', i.e. subsidizing the insurance premiums of a much larger number. Why do I say this? Because those families, as well as individuals, who are currently sacrificing to pay for their own insurance, will stop doing so when they see that their income level qualifies them for a subsidy. 45 million could easily become 100 million, I think.