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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (241691)	3/21/2010 11:34:33 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

People fail to understand that there are very important temporal components to dynamic systems. If you fail to account for the dynamic behavior you end up misreading overshoots and undershoots for longer term static conditions. care to expound on that? what would those 'temporal components to dynamic systems be? "dynamic behavior" being what? btw... you might want to factor in the inability to securitize the loans today as the biggest reason why there is no 'housing bubble' forming (except in vosilla land, haha) it was the securitization of loans that was a FAR greater element in fomenting the RE bubble....only when lenders were able to palm off their loans as AAA "investment" to unsuspecting investors was the bubble able to exist... had lenders held traditional lending standards, even with ridiculously low rates, prices would have remained reasonably stable....once you throw in the ability for borrowers to access phantom 'equity' due to price appreciation made on the margin by bad loans, you have a recipe for disaster... that component has disappeared, hence....no secondary bubble... oh yes, and keep deluding yourself also on GDP/debt ratios... every fucking banker i hear interviewed states EMPHATICALLY that loan DEMAND has dried up? now why is that? could it because borrowers RECOGNIZE that when you're in a hole STOP DIGGING???? the debt demand has fallen off the cliff because borrowers understand that digging yourself deeper in the hole in a contracting economic environment is financial insanity and the graph that i posted earlier is merely a reflection of that reality they 'get' the dynamics and the dynamics are not working in the favor of anyone taking on the burden of added DEBT... borrow $100 and get $20 to $30 back in 'return' sounds like a plan --NOT