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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (62236)	3/27/2010 4:11:12 AM
From: critical_mass	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217795

How do you see the situation developing? According to this: online.wsj.com exports within the EU account for 43% of the total. If others inside the Eurozone become more competitive, they could move the balance of trade toward equality. It seems unlikely to happen. Germany could increase its tendency to export, but if the increase is not restricted to areas outside the Eurozone, the balance will not correct. Here is a key passage from the above link: Yet without a common euro, Germany's currency would likely be stronger than its more indebted southern neighbors' and its goods abroad more expensive. In a simplistic model, the German currency should have risen against the Greek, Italian, and Spanish, but under the single currency, this mechanism to bring the export/import balance back into equilibrium has been removed. I wonder if Germany is positioning itself for the next episode in the crisis, i.e. the rest of the PIGS being positioned to a Greece. If those countries stop buying German exports, the teuto-economy will be toast.

To: elmatador who wrote (62236)	3/27/2010 8:13:22 PM
From: fatty	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 217795

every coutnry in the world wants to export, who is going to import?

To: elmatador who wrote (62236)	3/30/2010 1:11:23 AM
From: dybdahl	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217795

This is not a Merkel who wants to influence Europe, but it is a Merkel who would lose next election big time, if a bad construction would be created around the rescue of Greece. Germany was constructed in a very democratic way that can seem bureaucratic, but where legislation and actions focus a lot on quality. IMF has the experience to make countries do what they need to do, and will be the one making demands and getting the beat from the Greek voters. It also keeps German money away from Greece if everything goes well. If it doesn't go well, then Greece is definitely self to blame and will be excluded from the Euro. I cannot imagine this to be done in a different way. What about Germany's economic policies? Well, they surely made mistakes, too. But they are the most powerful economy inside EU and therefore in the position to help Greece. I don't think that the power in the French/German relationship has really changed a lot - it is only when UK or USA was involved, too, that Germany seemed smaller. Right now Germany has a lot of debt, so things only get "more German" because good politics comes out of Germany these days.