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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (21455)	4/7/2010 2:17:04 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	6 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50356

Ca$hing In Some Call$.... re: the March to May seasonal gold/pm trade: GDX April $50 calls up +127% today after being up +33% yesterday... finance.yahoo.com Last Trade: 0.40 Trade Time: 1:17PM ET Change: 0.22 (+122.22%) NEM April $55 calls up +92% today after being up +29% yesterday.... finance.yahoo.com NEM Apr 2010 55.000 call(OPR: NEM100417C00055000) Last Trade: 1.00 Trade Time: 1:19pm ET Change: 0.48 (+92.31%) The HUI Gold Bugs Index is still in an uptrend, but is starting to hit slightly over-bought territory on the technicals, so I'm cashing in calls, but letting shares run. While the longterm trend for the US Dollar is still bearish, gold & pm stocks really need the Dollar to correct out it's present uptrend. We need a breach of 80.5 and 79.51 to light a fire under the gold price and to break out of this present trading range. Near term US Dollar Chart: Long term US Dollar Chart: --------- SOTB

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (21455)	4/13/2010 9:02:25 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	5 Recommendations Respond to of 50356

re: Updating The Short Treasuries Trade... Message 26438973 Remember, pay attention to what they do, not what they say... From Morgan Stanley: scribd.com Buyer beware: "Corporations issued $93 bn in March the largest monthly issuance since May 2009 when interest rates rose sharply and UST 10y yields peaked near 4%. Investment grade corporate issuance is up 14% year-to-date versus 2009 ($191.8 bn in 2009 versus $218.7 bn in 2010). What is interesting is that this increase in issuance is coming at a time when bond yields are at the top of the 9-month range. We see this as a clear signal that corporations are concerned about rising rates and are issuing bonds to lock in attractive funding while they can. [Bingo!] On the demand side however, flows into bond funds continue at a record pace, despite a real risk to a move to higher rates. There is a clear dichotomy of views and we believe that the bond issuer will be the ultimate beneficiary and bond investors should be more wary." ==================== ==================== SOTB

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (21455)	5/20/2010 10:22:20 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50356

TBT trade time again? We caught a quick +30-40% bounce on this TBT put sale trade: From SliderOnTheBlack 3/3/2010 1:45:20 PM Message 26359425 Here: Message #21455 from SliderOnTheBlack at 4/5/2010 6:00:53 PM Message 26438973 "TBT put sales now up + 30-40% as 10 yr. breaks 4% (18 month high) and 3 & 6 Month T-Bill auctions weakest year to date..." ========== Sadly, I only took about 1/3rd of that trade off, but I sold TBT LEAPS for a longer term, "when, not if" trade. Right now we're getting a re-test of that TBT bottom, and this should set up another 30-40% short term bounce trade here, as traders flock to US Treasuries on a "best of the worst" flight to safety trade. Let's see if we can do this one more time. Only this time, we're looking for a short-term trade, since we're already holding our "Black Swan" hedge. You can sell the Jan 2012 $30 TBT puts for $3.20, or the $35's for $4.95. I like the $30-$35 strikes. You could also sell the $25 strike and use that "safe" premium to buy some deep out of the money LEAP calls... which isn't a bad way to put on an initial "Black Swan" US Treasury hedge if you don't already have one on. We're looking for a quick 30-40% bounce trade here on a TBT 35-38ish double-bottom. 1/2 position now... 2nd half at TBT 35 if seen. SOTB PS: TBT is a Bear ETF on long dated US Treasuries. Being "short" US Treasuries (which TBT is) should be one of the "Black Swan" portfolio hedges that nearly everyone should have in place here. The "Black Swan" hedges are small, max out of the money positions short the broad market, short US Treasuries, and long gold - as "insurance" against any Rogue Wave, or "Black Swan" market events. You can listen to Taleb's thesis at a link found here: Message 26307281