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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (130135)	4/6/2010 2:25:29 PM
From: CommanderCricket	1 Recommendation Respond to of 206178

"2) Oil is still linked to the buck. Oil should crash this time - just as it did the last time the Greece-fire started." Crude isn't linked to the $USD today.... Would've expected a sell off in crude with the dollar rally today especially with it trading above $86.80

To: ChanceIs who wrote (130135)	4/6/2010 2:32:25 PM
From: tom pope	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206178

I guess "target" is the appropriate word? FT: Greece to target US investors with bond

To: ChanceIs who wrote (130135)	4/6/2010 3:16:42 PM
From: Keith J	Respond to of 206178

I am perplexed as well. Stocks like ANN, HOT, and RCL have been very strong of late and appear well ahead of valuations. And if oil continues to break higher it would not appear to bode well for any of those stocks. If the dollar strengthens, it is not favorable for HOT or RCL. Yet thus far no one seems to be paying attention. Not to mention the continuing large valuation gap between crude and NG here in the U.S. And what happens to housing sales once the tax incentives end? To me the market is overdue for a pullback. KJ

To: ChanceIs who wrote (130135)	4/6/2010 4:28:19 PM
From: profile_14	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206178

What will this do to the price of my oily stocks?? Depends which stocks you are talking about, right. I am short E&Ps and long service companies a bit, but pretty short the market now, including a lot of momo names (that are hurting a lot) outside of this board's spectrum. Rates are climbing, but the market seems to want a little inflation (not here yet) to feel good. They will get it. Commodities are up. Ore is up 90%+, translating into 21% increase in steel prices, which has everyone (that reads a paper). Of course we don't need appliances or cars any more. China will appreciate its currency and increase its purchasing power, and in so doing will let the dollar fall. What do we export? Services. What do we buy, products. Those prices will rise and our affordability will fall. Who is going to buy those products (we are about a third of world GDP)? I smell a funk coming around the corner, perhaps the 2nd half of the year, where equities fall and fixed income falls less than equities, but at least you're getting paid in the interim. Just my 2 cents.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (130135)	4/7/2010 4:06:39 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206178

Yes, yes, yes. The Greece fire got going in the kitchen with abandon. Crude down a buck. Dollar up a bit. Broad market down. The US 10 year auction had the highest bid/cover ration in quite a long time - US 10 years rates dropped. Interesting to see that 30 year mortgage rates spiked. But then again Bernanke said that mortgage rates wouldn't climb once he stopped quantitative easing, didn't he. I guess that the flight to safety no longer includes US mortgages. Good that somebody has gotten a little sense after a decade of real estate bubbles. Query for the board: Don't bond values rise when rates fall and vice-verse. So all of those $1.25 tri$$ion in mortgage backed securities that Bernanke just purchased for the FED on my behalf as my agent just took a big hit, right. Isn't the change in bond values the most when interest rates are low? Something about duration, convexity, and things any high school calculus student mastered. In business, we speak of the principal-agent problem. So I am the principal, and Bernanke is my agent. It doesn't appear that he is following my agenda, now does it. Just who might have benefited from him buying those MBS at the market top in bonds? Don't tell me the banks.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (130135)	4/25/2010 11:35:04 AM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206178

I guess this idea is dead. OPEC may switch to euro, will "take time" -sec-gen Message 24296582 Oil Min: Iran Has Halted Oil Transactions In Dollars -AFP Message 24121001 Iran has reduced its assets in dollars held in foreign banks and urged OPEC to take collective action to price oil in other currencies such as the euro, instead of the U.S. currency which is used across the world at present. Delinkage Oil Price From Dollar Under Assessment Message 24066888 Ministers have been discussing openly, as sources present during the meeting stated, whether oil should continue to be valued in dollars. Iran and Venezuela have already been openly urging members to consider the option. However, as OPEC officials stated after the meeting, even the mentioning of a possibility would currently have a debilitating effect on the position of the dollar. Still, Iran and Venezuela seem to be heading towards an implementation of the idea. Already, most Asian traders are being asked by Iran to have contracts set up in either Euros or Yen. The Dollar Collapse's Oil Ramifications Message 23734155 But what happens when, as is inevitable, the dollar starts to fall in an even more substantial way? The obvious solution for the Middle Eastern petrostates is to stop pricing the oil they sell in dollars and start pricing it in euros. Pricing oil in dollars might have made sense when there was a paucity of other relatively stable currencies, when U.S. demand was more significant as a proportion of world demand than it is today, and when the Middle East imported more from the U.S. - but not any more. However, the extra demand for the dollar created by its use as the currency of global oil trading is a significant prop for the currency. Take that away, and another round of depreciation is likely. One would expect that the U.S. government to exert considerable diplomatic pressure to maintain the dollar’s position, but with a changed diplomatic environment and the emergence of very real geopolitical rivals to the U.S., such as China, success can certainly not be guaranteed. It is also worth noting that China is on trend to be largest consumer of oil before long. So maybe one day, oil will be priced in renminbi. But for now, the euro looks like the way to go – to the detriment of the dollar.