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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: matherandlowell who wrote (91075)	4/22/2010 8:51:26 PM
From: slacker711	3 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 197214

3G is just getting warmed up. This just isnt true. It might be in the early innings of the 3G unit ramp, but total 3G device revenue growth has been slowing for years. I think it is around 10% this year. The problem is that 3G has already conquered the handset market when looking at it from a revenue standpoint. The 3G portion of the total market for handsets is in the neighborhood of 70% this year. Units still have a long way to go, but the bulk of the revenue growth has already occurred. Slacker

To: matherandlowell who wrote (91075)	4/22/2010 10:06:26 PM
From: qinvestor	3 Recommendations Respond to of 197214

QUALCOMM's own charts show YOY CDMA growth rates peaking around 2010 to 2011... This does not mean there is no more growth. It simply means the rate of growth will slow. Probably from 20-30%+ in the early years (1997 till 06) and now probably 10-12% or so going forward. PE's and valuations are based on growth rates... You can have sloppy management when you have alot of growth, but you need to have a lot of discipline when the money stops sloshing around. They have to manage margins or find new growth avenues. I see neither happening... Its easy to see the temptation of senior management, that when faced with dwindling prospects, will try to make a major acquistion with shareholders' money. We all know the track record of QC Investments. The all seem to end up being "NETZERO".

To: matherandlowell who wrote (91075)	4/23/2010 1:03:05 PM
From: waitwatchwander	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197214

Mather, Any company that reports earnings and drops like Qualcomm has in the last two quarters is a risky tout. They even managed to do that while all other tech stocks rose. Predicting record EPS expectations is not recognizable. It is their chart that says it all. It was management's failure to deliver upon all the promise which you note that brought this on. Buffet would never be a Qualcomm investor because he expects steady forward movement based upon solid execution of safe planning. Yes, he too makes mistakes. This might well be nothing more than a retest of the hands that acquired the stock during the prior debacle but seeing it all as management serving shareholders well (and their employees via their options) is a bit of a stretch. The business model is easy to comprehend but not so easy to implement, especially on a global basis. That's why QTL margins are falling. The benefits of the wireless universe is a shared resource, as should be the costs. From the perspective of this Qualcomm investor, both those factors are not quite as rosy as we've been lead to believe. QCT is being rejigged and should be better positioned to compete down the road. QES is economically sensitive and margined like a grocery store. QWI is like QES without the economic sensitivity. QGOV is likely the jewel in the crown but of an unspoken nature. Until proven, the rest of the portfolio is nothing but a lottery. Cash is always good but that is now showing signs of peaking and intangibles are starting to be highlighted. Business acumen is a more important dimension these days. Qualcomm's management is conservative so when loss of control as is reflected in the market over the last few months rules the day it seems somewhat prudent to reconsider management savvy on that front. No doubt you see a lot and others don't share your enthusiasm. I see room for improvement but as time passes that seems to be becoming limited. Limiting comes out of the company tripling its army which dictates more and more tact in executing the directions of the acumen pool. Good luck with your buying. I hope you keep at it and that you are right. Rotation should be a helpful to the cause. ps Aren't we close to the time of the year when employee options get issued?