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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (91079)	4/22/2010 10:23:23 PM
From: engineer	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197216

MY numbers just do not support your findings. 3G is about mid point. Running at a good rate right now. Lots left to go.

To: slacker711 who wrote (91079)	4/23/2010 2:40:19 PM
From: data_rox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 197216

there is some good data from Morgan regarding 3G subscribers and penetration rates in this preso - starting page 25....overall a lot of other info too morganstanley.com

To: slacker711 who wrote (91079)	4/23/2010 6:09:02 PM
From: edwin k.	5 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197216

you have got to be kidding....look at how 2G took off at the end of the 2G cycle, which so many of us thought had run it's course. As 2G GSM phones became so ubiquitous and cheap, second and (maybe even) some third world countries were snatching them up. You cannot convince me that 3G has run it's course, or even close. e.k.

To: slacker711 who wrote (91079)	4/23/2010 8:11:16 PM
From: matherandlowell	5 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197216

3G is just getting warmed up. This just isnt true. Slacker: Because I have great respect for your insights into this company and this industry, I am confused by your argument that the growth of 3G is leveling off. My sense is that you are interpreting my language more precisely than I meant it. When I use the term "3G," I am actually thinking about all of QCOM's patents. Paul Jacobs argues that the company does not view the field as 3G and 4G but rather as a blend of different advances which are retroactively labeled as such. The only important point here is that Qualcomm has foundational patents in all of the spread spectrum technologies currently being advanced as standards worldwide. Years ago, when I was following this stock more closely, there were real doubts about whether QCOM would be paid a standard royalty rate on WCDMA. Arguments were waged as to whether the Chinese would even acknowledge QCOM's IP. BRCM advanced the legal argument that the Q's patents should be held to be invalid because of issues having to do with disclosure. Lawsuits were filed on these questions. Now, from what I am able to tell, the game is basically up. Nokia is no longer an enemy. Nokia is paying the price for not accepting QCOM's semiconductors much earlier. Peace has been made with BRCM (basically an entire company of criminals). Samsung has re-signed. The Chinese have been licensed and have completed their 3G buildout. Does anyone remember the days before QCOM bought Flarion? There were people who argued that Qualcomm would be skipped over in favor of 4G. My point is only that all of this noise has now been silenced. Qualcomm is now the undisputed owner of the IP on which a worldwide system of communication will be based. The Q will not get quite as high a royalty for so called pure 4G as it did for 3G, but there will be a royalty. And pure 4G is still a very long way in the future. 3G will be with us for the foreseeable future. I'm not sure that there is a precedent for the grip Qualcomm has on this worldwide phenomenon. True, Apple has emerged as a leader for smartphones. (I own some Apple stock.) But new competition will emerge. As a QCOM shareholder, I don't care who makes the product-- the Q gets paid for all such devices. So while Nokia seems down, I don't think we can say that they are out. Irwin realized that one company could not totally dominate all the products which were to emerge in this technological explosion, so he figured out a way for QCOM to make a small amount on all of them. I'll take that. All this nonsense about ASP's does not demonstrate that QCOM's day has passed-- and I realize that you of all people are not making that argument-- but only that metrics have to be refined so that we all agree on what we are talking about. A metric which no one can avoid is the one referenced earlier from the Morgan Stanley presentation. 3G users are growing rather quickly: 373 million in 2007, 430 in 2008, 688 in 2009, 1055 projected this year, and 1503 million projected for 2011. True, I'm not an engineer, but those numbers don't sound like 10% growth to me. I think my frustration is that QCOM doesn't seem to be getting its due credit. The iphone is regarded as an Apple invention. Some writers don't seem to understand that the technology, although not the silicon, is made possible courtesy of Qualcomm. Some of this has to do with Steve Jobs and his personal marketing techniques. I can't wait to hear a "by the way" Apple has only recently invented a...reflective screen-- visible in direct sunlight. I don't regard Apple as the enemy. I regard the company as phenomenon. I hope there are many more companies like Apple which will pay royalties to QCOM. When I think that Apple is getting rich on Qualcomm's sweat, I buy some more of it. I don't think that makes me a traitor. Anyway, I realize that this board is read by sophisticates like yourself, engineers and accountants, lawyers and business people of all sorts. It is also haunted by those who seem to have much less expertise and experience. I'm somewhere in between. But as an investor for many years, having sold and then re bought, sold and re bought, I have to say that from my more distant perspective things have never looked better for Qualcomm. Disputes about standards are over. Arguments about royalties seem to be over. New technologies (albeit expensive to produce) are waiting in the wings. We are at the beginning of a explosion of new devices, all of which will need to pay a royalty to QCOM. Total 3G connections were 688 million in 2009 and will be 1.5 billion in 2011. Even though there may be some shifting around of the metrics, that sounds like pretty good growth to me. Thanks again for your service to the thread and your willingness to share your insights. I think we are in for an incredible couple of years. j.