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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Eric who wrote (38)4/28/2010 10:26:11 AM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1504
 
Well, not so bad compared to Japan maybe, but we're getting up there. My main worry is that the G20 is running out of dry powder to combat the next crisis. Already between the PIIGS, they are estimating they will need half a trillion to refinance their debt over the next 3 years. With yields and risk increasing on the PIIGS, the question is who will come to the table with that kind of money?

Here's a good article that shows where the world's economies are on %age of debt to GDP. It's startling how much it has increased in the last 3 years. Keep in mind that yields across the board have gone higher in Q1'10. Greece for example is now at around 12%. So the picture below is tame compared to what the increase looks like 1 quarter later.
carnegieendowment.org

Govt Debt 10-Year Govt
(% of GDP) Bond Yield Percentile
Q4'07 Q4'09 Q4'07 Q4'09 Rank(0-100)
Advanced G20 78.2 98.9 – – –
United States 61.9 84.8 4.26 3.40 91.9
Japan 187.7 218.6 1.55 1.40 89.5
European Union 66.0 78.2 – – –
Germany 63.4 78.7 4.19 3.22 93.3
France 63.8 76.7 4.33 3.56 90.0
United Kingdom 44.1 68.7 4.79 3.67 92.3
Italy 103.5 115.8 4.53 4.08 62.2
Spain 36.1 52.0 4.33 3.78 85.2
Greece 95.6 111.5 4.51 4.57 73.2
Ireland 25.1 61.3 4.42 4.69 94.3
Portugal 63.6 74.9 4.45 3.83 83.7
Developing G20 37.4 38.9 – – –
China 20.2 20.2 7.83 5.94 45.0
Russia 7.4 7.2 6.68 9.59 19.6
Brazil 66.8 68.5 12.53 13.65 46.4
India 80.5 84.7 7.25 7.18 56.5



To: Eric who wrote (38)5/7/2010 11:21:05 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1504
 
Eric, earlier last week I went to all cash. On Thursday, I bought a lot at the exact bottom, but they didn't execute my trades until the next day, so I got out again with only a small profit. I'm all cash again today and plan to stay in cash for the next 6-7 months, at least. It's ugly out there. I'm even afraid of bonds now too, because bonds are looking bubbly. Nowhere to hide.