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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10455)	11/6/1997 10:43:00 AM
From: GW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I agree, AMAT is going to sneak its way up to $50....then rocket to $90. INTC looks like a good time to load up.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10455)	11/6/1997 10:49:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, Jeff Mills posted this URL for the transcript yesterday... mktnews.nasdaq.com GM

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10455)	11/6/1997 11:33:00 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, it wasn't from yesterday's interview. However 20% annual growth is about average for the semi equip industry as a whole since 1980.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10455)	11/6/1997 12:12:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, If the report is true, you are indeed correct in saying that AMAT is near its fair value. However, eps forecasts i have seen for FY99 indicate a mean in the range of $3.25. I have a difficult time believing that AMAT will grow from $3.25 in FY99 to only $4.00 in FY02 THREE YEARS! That is an annualized growth rate in the SINGLE DIGITS!!!! Either the estimates for the near future are much inflated(I do not think so) or Morgan is being very conservative(History repeated). It is my sincere belief that Morgan is once again severly underestimating future eps so that once they come out and "surprise" the street, the stock will take off. Morgan is an excellent player of the Expectations Game; I believe it is what we are now witnessing. BTW, earlier this year many on this thread, including yourself, were looking for $10+ eps(pre-split) early next century. I asked before and will ask again: What has changed? IMHO, nothing. Regards, Brian

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10455)	11/6/1997 1:17:00 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, What kind of standard deviation would you expect in a 5 year growth forcast by a CEO in a highly cyclical growth industry? 50% plus industry CAGR that occurred for 3 yrs prior to spring '96 could not last indefinitely. The semi capex boom climbed to record 31% of sales in '96, well over its long term trend line (now about 23%). Some analysts see completion of 0.35 mu expansions and lack of production-worthy 0.25 mu tools causing industry semi capex to fall below long-term average before a new cycle begins. Assuming semi capex declining to 21% of sales in the next 2 years, semi capex CAGR should average < 10% through 1999-2000. It will be interesting to see if JM addresses this possible scenario. SC