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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charlie Tuna who wrote (4640)	11/6/1997 4:07:00 PM
From: Steve Lewis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11555

I read the article and there are valid points to seeing the Intel as keeping their monopoly in the expanded makets of 1999+.(I'm not sure where the 3X-10X forecasts come from that I see referred to but this is going to be a much bigger MPU market and a non-monolithic one IMO.) However Intel has to execute and fight on multiple fronts with live competitors that are shipping other parts with new planned members of their families in the wings. (IBM/Compaq are buying the story with 2nd tier and 3rd tier companies (& onward) also working on strategies to compete in the clone system business) I agree with overall notion that RobS & others have spoken about where we may be seeing the de-coupling of the Intel CPU brand away from a functional Windows "unit". The clones using clone X86-MPU's is probably an unstoppable development as long as IDTI, et. al. continue to move ahead on the product plans and simply exist. (If Intel was running a tight margin, low profitability commodity game it would be much harder for anyone to enter) The problem for Intel is that they have three competitors now that are run by successful business people in their own right. The IDTI clone growth may be slow (& relatively miniscule) and it would be better for IDTI to have IBM in their camp however they have more time for the Centaur C6+ plans to playout. The american companies used to own the memory mfg business (Intel was involved here also) until the Japanese & others changed the playing field to make it a leaner business. The X86 business is going to get leaner (look at today's Intel's margins) in the years to come. The potential margin deflation is huge if you consider that Intel's 58% profit margin moves down to a more industry standard level like 15-30%. Unless the Intel architecture switch is overwhelmingly compelling to 95% of the market which IMO is not going to happen, they will simply dominate like AT&T does with 66% of the market to MCI's ~20%, etc. IF the architecture changes Intel suggests are light on the innovation and the other guys can play close to them, then the market will have enough reasons to buy the computer with C6 inside. Now the stock price---I am long and will stay long to see this playout with some very large potential. (unrealized but still tempting enough) Final positive thought (wish?) The semi cycle should work to our favor over the next 2-3 years which should lift many boats including IDTI's. (Speculative Idea and SWAG for IDTI - The IDTI ZBT derived graphics chip is awesome and lands in the new Mac net PC (priced to sell) that Steve Jobs has hinted at for early 1998 (January Macworld or by April at the latest) I have no information directly but deduce that Apple is one of IDTI's largest customer & Jobs has talked about "performance that no Wintel can touch!")

To: Charlie Tuna who wrote (4640)	11/7/1997 12:19:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11555

There is an article in the new issue of Computer Reseller News (http://www.crn.com) that talks about parts shortages. It indicates that demand is very strong for the discontinued Pentium "Classic"(Intel stopped production of new wafer starts in July and is now running out of parts), the Pentium MMX 200, and the Pentium II 300. It quotes that the Pentium II bellow 300 MHz is just building up on the shelves of distributors. Intel has got to do someting to try to gain back market share that Cyrix, AMD and in a few months IDT will threaten to errode (it will take IDT several months to ramp sales and production volume to even be considered as a threat to Intel's 70 million unit/year volume). I just got CRN in today's mail and haven't checked their web site for the article. It does confirm earlier articles and statemetns by Intel's competitors that they are now selling everything they can produce. In fact, what holds AMD and Cyrix back is now much more the ability to ramp production and achieve higher yields. This should be an encouraging sign for sales of the C6. Cyrix and AMD had a rough going for a while in gaining user acceptance but now it certainly looks like the market is more accepting of alternatives. Despite AMD's very fine new FAB dedicated to the K6 family, they have had such lousy yields, reportedly around 20%, that they are losing money. The K6 is twice the size of the C6 and uses five metal layers rather than four in the C6. Let's hope that we hear from Centaur or IDT during Comdex that they are successfully ramping the part. Word of this might spur analysts/brokerages to put IDTI on their front burners. I may try to call Centaur and IDT within the next few days to see how things are going. I will probably need to dig further than some flunky IR spokesperson.