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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (132512)	6/3/2010 9:09:57 AM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206191

A Tender to Remember Logging While Investing OFS Weekly Analysis 39 pages, 30 exhibits Link: sendspace.com Bullet points: Purchase bids submitted to Petrobras: Contract drillers are to follow: A positive for equipment manufacturers: Rigs would only come in 2014-2018, but still negative for deepwater contract drillers for now: Now, the question is, will the bids "float"?; we expect plenty of commercial wrangling first: Excerpt: Our take on the group. We see enduring value in exposure to non-NAM markets —and we look for signs of spending growth to emerge more strongly after mid-year —which continues to steer our preferences — now nearer term and longer term — to diversified services, land-based construction, and strongly free cash-flowing offshore drillers. Having said that, the Macondo disaster has the potential to meaningfully undermine upstream spending momentum, most obviously in offshore markets. We await better clarity of the impacts before recommending buying the group, despite the recent sell-off, with our preferences within the group of onshore, oily exposed names. NOV is also reasonably distanced from direct Macondo impact, in our view and has some momentum in recent rig tendering progress in Brazil. Our top picks, with investment theses unrelated to the well disaster are as follows. In diversified service large caps, HAL (top pick) and SLB appear well positioned to outperform in the nearer term, particularly with 1Q10 caution already being reflected in shares. We prefer NE among drillers. And in European OFS, we favor the defensiveness (including versus expectations) and backlog outlook for onshore-exposed names including PFC.L.