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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ThirdEye who wrote (7607)	11/6/1997 2:20:00 PM
From: Skeptic	Respond to of 13949

if we don't see simultaneous signs of strong post-2000 performance, we may never see the panic buying that has been projected here so often. If the investing world begins to accept the seriousness of the Y2K problem, then panic selling of all financial assets is much more likely. If a few percentage points of lost Asian revenue can take the market down 7%, imagine what a worldwide recession or worse would do!

To: ThirdEye who wrote (7607)	11/6/1997 2:59:00 PM
From: paul e thomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

IMRS PANIC BUYING I don't see panic buying of IMRS leading to price gaps etcr of the kind that occurred in the second quarter.In that quarter the insitutional ownwership increased dramatically.If the IMRS price starts to increase as a result of new Institutional interest I believe the positive effect will be muted by prking by those institutions that bought in the second quarter and have not experienced any gains since then.I believe that after the stock rebounds to about 34-35 that it will then increase at about 20% per quarter tracking my forecast of sequential earnings growth rate.

To: ThirdEye who wrote (7607)	11/6/1997 10:08:00 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

Re: My 1«› on Y2K (I'm reserving the other half-penny just in case I change my mind (gg)) I agree with Taoman about the emotional nature of this sector. In the early days (i.e. '96), there was no perceived difference between a body shop (like IMRS) and a tool vendor (like ZITL). The companies that shot up in value were the ones that got their names in the papers. Since actual Y2K customers back then were few and far between, by definition, investment decisions were all based on who had the most convincing hype. I dub investors in these companies as the "first wave". The quick rise and fall of companies like ZITL and the lure of quick money brought about the "second wave". This time, people jumped from stock to stock. Y2K IPOs were hot and any company that put Y2K in their press release instantly rose in value. Many of us that jumped in early in the year and stuck it out in one stock are sitting on a 100% return on our early investments. The problem the sector is undergoing now is simple: there is no third wave-- yet. These are the people I would call "traditional avid" investors. They look at earnings, the number of shares, analyst expectations etc. Many of these people that do invest come to the (logical) conclusion that the whole sector is over-valued and the best course of action is to short Y2K vendors. Potential longs seem to be staying on the sidelines. Yes there are Y2K companies that are showing amazing earnings that deserve much more respect than they are getting. But if we can have irrational exuberance, there is no reason why we can't have irrational malaise. Suddenly the glass is half-empty instead of half-full. Personally, I think it's healthy that the sector is going through a lull. Eventually there will be something that sparks interest again. People will look at companies trading at 20-50% below their 52 week highs and consider them bargains. These stocks will suddenly shoot back up and irrational exhuberance will set back in-- with a vengeance. The more shorts, the higher the pop. - Jeff