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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (5228)	6/1/2010 9:13:05 PM
From: marc ultra	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

< Do you think the possibility of a "BIG W" has passed? In terms of a double dip recession I don't see it at least not anytime soon so I'm basically going along with what Bob is saying on that. Too much is being made of Europe in terms of potential to derail the US economy. Exports are about 10% of GDP of which about 20% go to Europe. So if Europe fell off the face of the Earth it could mean a 2% hit to GDP which would obviously be significant. In fact Europe isn't falling off the face of the Earth but the major economies of Germany France and the UK are all seeing decent growth . The PIIGS are a very tiny part and are just not that relevant. If this was 2008 then maybe we'd worry about a contagion to the US banks but that's no longer the case. US banks are extremely well capitalized now and are not holding a lot of European Sovereign debt anyway. What the European crisis is doing is ensuring the Fed is on hold for now and won't raise rates prematurely which is more important than anything going on in Europe. We have solid growth in the US and while we're probably going to slow a bit in the second half it will still be OK growth and any moderation will again keep the Fed away. In terms of the market which is what we care about things are just extremely bullish to me if you look at things like valuation, interest rates, inflation, the Fed and the economy that Bob and other fundamental market timers focus on. So I think we're looking at an imminent new up-leg in the bull as we get this correction out of the way. That said, I'm not in any commodity related stocks or financials at this time though the indexes should obviously move up.