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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (48240)	6/15/2010 7:26:24 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95647

Hi marc, it is different this time. Many more global markets. An infrasrtucture that is built out(3G) and a new one ($G) that is coincidentally being built out. A global population all clamoring for inexpensive gadgets vs PC that were extremely expensive and took 5-10 years to get almost inexpensive. A younger generation that embraces the technology as cool vs the past generation that were labeled Geeks. It is different this tiome and its greatest differentiator is low price and mass unit count. JMHO Bob El Arian has been way wrong about his new normal -Pimco predicted 5.5 % treasuries after the 4 % and they've gone to 3 % - ooops for his new normal. Bob

To: marc ultra who wrote (48240)	6/15/2010 12:14:45 PM
From: cluka	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95647

"BTW why is it that people who take great exception to the idea something may be different this time don't have the same strong opinion when we hear people like Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian talking about a "new normal" which sounds suspiciously the same as saying it's different this time?" You are confusing apples and oranges. "New Normal" means different level of economic activity in different sectors of economy. As an example, instead of looking for home ownership to go to 70% it may revert back toward 50%. Numbers are off the cuff but the idea is of a different way of looking at future growth. What "this time is different" means in Semi industry is trying to demonstrate that demand is going to drive cycle and not supply. You are pointing to the facts that there is new and improved growth that will be ahead of supply increases at all times. That is a foolish view, it will not happen, it will not be different this time. robert b furman, You have always been bullish and have held this same view since day 1 you posted here. Your optimism has helped me cope with losses in the past and I thank you for it. But my friend, you will be wrong again as you have been many times before.