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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (5280)	6/24/2010 11:48:51 AM
From: Honey_Bee	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Kirk said to "the marc ultra": "I recall the days when you fawned over Brinker's every word. What changed this for you? Given his timing model issued a "gift horse buying opportunity" near the very top of the market in 2007 just before the greatest bear market since they great depression, why haven't you given up on his timing ability as you have with all his other abilities?" Kirk, Perhaps "the marc ultra" hasn't read what JoefromSpringfield has posted on my Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz Thread (here at Silicon Investor). Joe agrees that market-timing is difficult and posted some Brinker history to prove it. Joe also posted some excerpts of what Brinker was actually saying (on Moneytalk) about those who were bearish, instead of bullish (like he was), as the market tanked into the worst bear of our lifetimes. .

To: Kirk © who wrote (5280)	6/24/2010 2:59:24 PM
From: marc ultra	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

< I recall the days when you fawned over Brinker's every word. What changed this for you? Given his timing model issued a "gift horse buying opportunity" near the very top of the market in 2007 just before the greatest bear market since they great depression, why haven't you given up on his timing ability as you have with all his other abilities? If as you say I was fawning over every word Bob said it didn't necessarily mean I was doing everything he recommended. My not using things that Bob says has nothing to do with my opinion of the newsletter or Bob's record all of which I still think is outstanding particularly compared to any alternative I'm familiar with. The fact is I've become a far more sophisticated and at times more high risk investor. I'm in a lot of microcaps or some biotechs and I'm not as diversified as I probably should be. I also generally invest in individual stocks rather than funds So I'd recommend everything in Bob's letter to others for whom it's appropriate but other than viewing his long term market timing decisions as extremely important for me to evaluate, the rest of the stuff isn't that relevant to the way I invest anymore. When making these points before I've prefaced it by saying for better or worse. So I might very well be better off if I more blindly just follow all of Brinker's principles and model portfolios and whatever but again It's not the way I invest anymore. I have zero complaints about his long term timing model and interpretation and the only reason I may not use it exactly is because I've largely adopted the principles he uses in my market analysis so I'll generally be in tune with him but not precisely. I agree with Bob's following his market timing principles which will be correct most of the time but when you get factors outside of the usual things like valuation, interest rates and the Fed, the economy and sentiment then that type of model will fail in situations when yo have these other black swan events like the oil spike and Lehman. As with Bob I'm not going to invest worrying about black swan events. I'm not going to worry about some low probability government mistake like Lehman as we hadn't had a financial panic in the 100 years before that. If I do get caught in a black swan I'll try to opportunistically make the money back on the other side of the crisis.