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To: Doug who wrote (7687)	11/7/1997 2:10:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Hi again, Doug: you definitely have a pessimistic market in your support -- for the moment. //OT// But the heart of your argument deserves further discussion, and I didn't do the contrary side full justice in the wee hours of the morning. To me the flaw in any scenario which depends upon low production costs to make the argument is: the evidence is contrary. If low production costs are the key to success, then Bangladesh is the Industrial Capital of the World.. If low production costs insure success, then Intelski of Russia has the top PC processors, not Intel of the U.S. Wouldn't you agree with me on that, Doug? Ross Perot and Pat Buchanan make the same flawed argument in opposing NAFTA: "Our high wage jobs will go to Mexico, and our unemployment will shoot up" Dead Wrong! Export oriented jobs enjoy HIGHER wages than typical, and U.S. unemployment, since NAFTA is the lowest in 25 years, and the lowest of the industrial countries (possible exception, Japan). The flaw --- just because Mexico has low wages does not mean that products can be Planned,designed, financed, created, produced, managed, marketed for a lower total cost than in the U.S. Finally, Doug, much of the production capacity in SE Asia was built up with easy access to low-cost capital... Do you expect that access to continue? OK, that is a somewhat better attempt to put in the optimistic slant on the (Real) concerns you properly raised. My bet continues to be that the optimistic scenario wins out. (For the same reason I see the U.S. market isn't near as weak as some of the foreign markets). Counterpoints accepted, when a less active market gives time to think... Happy trading Doug! (BTW, are you mostly in cash, as I am?) dlo