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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (5389)	7/8/2010 5:45:40 PM
From: marc ultra	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

< wonder if Friday's death cross for the S&P500 was responsible as many trend following models use that to get out. Death cross,head and shoulders top, breaking key support or whatever the technicians want to key on always looks ugly with them fleeing just before the bottom. I want that to happen, I expect it to happen and I'm thrilled when it happens. I made a point of that in post 5375 to I2 Since I, and fundamental market timers like Bob, are going on fundamentals then the trend should be ugly and scare techicians, stocks will have been falling so valuation is better, sentiment will have gotten overly bearish as stocks were falling and with the market falling and the scary headlines that always accompany a correction the Fed will tend toward accommodative rather than more restrictive policy. So it really all tends to fall into place at major tops or bottoms and at the turn the technicians will be wrong and the fundamental timers will be right.Time will tell but it looks pretty good at the moment. Obviously the technicians had their time for being right as they followed a trend down but like most of TA the trend is correct until it's not correct. I also noted a long time ago when we had that morning selling climax to 1040 on 5/25 that I thought whenever the market is in the 1050 area it was a good buying opportunity and I was buying. Somewhere else where I occasionally discuss the market I noted that the correction bottom was probably put in at 1040 and was successfully tested but the only really important question was whether we were in a bear market or not and my strong view was not. So when we broke 1040 I was asked what now? First I was able to fall back on the fact I didn't think fundamental conditions were consistent with a bear but in fact were very bullish and getting more so. Then I noted it could be a major mistake to panic because we broke 1040 and sell because that might just end up playing into the market's seeming grand plan which is to screw as many investors as possible most of the time and also sometimes when something like 1040 gets ingrained as critical and keeps being tested then it may just need to fail and get it out of the way before we take that next leg up in the bull and that looks like what happened. Again it comes down to whether you're using fundamentals or technicals to evaluate the market and at major turns technical analysis will be very wrong. Time will tell if this was indeed the bottom.