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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tdl4138 who wrote (7801)	7/21/2010 1:30:34 PM
From: clew less	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220491

TD, you make a number of good points. I just want to respond to one of your focal points -- jobless recovery. What we are experiencing is very normal at this juncture in a recovery. More PT, more hours per employee, great productivity per employee; these are the first steps, not to suggest that they portend a second step in the right direction. People saw the stock market get overshold, and then go on a manic rally, and they inferred everything was rosy from the climb. That's part of the equation as I see it. I am in the camp that says things aren't nearly as bad as they seem, that things are improving, albeit slowly, and there are pockets of strength, like emerging markets, Canada, Russia, etc. (most notably China and India) that can keep this recovery going, assuming there is MF-style flexibility and resiliency.

To: tdl4138 who wrote (7801)	7/21/2010 1:35:09 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 220491

That's a great question, hardly mundane, and thanks for asking... let me see if I can clarify what my position is for you... First of all, I'm not a bull waiting for some buy signal... take a look at what I wrote in the header, I simply trade long and short depending on the signal... I'm short right now and waiting for a buy signal... as it happens, the buy signal is now closer to the market than it was last week... personally, I don't care if we get the buy signal or not, I'm short right now... I fully agree with you on the fundamentals, but I'm not smart enough to assign specific values to each fundamental component and then crunch the numbers to see whether these markets are a buy or not, I'll leave that to the experts and professionals who can do a much better job on that... For me, life is simple, when I get a sell signal, I go short... when I get a buy signal, I go long... as they say, it's so easy, a caveman could do it... again, thanks for asking, I hope my response was helpful..<g> GZ

To: tdl4138 who wrote (7801)	7/21/2010 4:29:49 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 220491

You make it easy to answer. Thanks in advance! "But what about the basic economic fundamentals and human equation. Consumer confidence is weak. Trading volume is weak. Housing is abysmal. Europe has massive issues. Corporate earnings are coming in far from stellar with a few exceptions. People I speak to in business across the country are scared to death and have yet to see any upturn of any sort...anywhere. The coming elections offer gridlock...at best. The best example for my caution is the term "jobless recovery". How in the world can you engineer any sort of sustainable recovery and not create employment? Higher taxes are already being talked about and municipal services are being cut back everywhere due to budget shortfalls. You can go on and on.." Simply put... what sort of news did you read about in March 2000 or Oct 2007? Next what sort of news did you read about in Oct 2002 or March 2009? Finally, what set of news is your list closer to? Answer the question correctly and learn to act on it and you too might not have to do a regular job like many of us here. 8) FWIW, I left the workforce at age 41 and still live in the expensive Silicon Valley at age 53... it can be done. Lots of good people here to learn from. FWIW2, I think people are seeing companies that CAN create real jobs are not because they don't think the return justifies the risk. If someone unemployed with a brain wants a job, a real job not filling in holes for the government, then she will see things need to change. It happened in 1996 and I made a small fortune from what I bought between 1993 and 1996 when people I know running tech companies today thought I was foolish to buy.... and I was only an engineer.