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Strategies & Market Trends : Investing during a Bear Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekgk who wrote (9)	11/8/1997 4:41:00 AM
From: Paul M. Rengier	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 226

tekgk, let me add a little from a german perspective. first I have to admit, my gains in $-calls are reversed now, so I might not be right. But In GY it is generally accepted that a) The Euro is coming and b) it will not be a strong currency. You mix up currencies with different strength and cannot expect to be as strong as the strongest of them (assuming DM is one of the stronger) There are call options with a strike of 2.30 DM/$! Even if this will prove to be nonsense, there is a strong possibility of 1.90 DM/$ in the march-june timeframe. Interest rates have to be adjusted, the italian rates must come down, the german rates must go up (which goes against $). So if you see the DM at 0.59 or higher, this may be an ideal entry point to short the DM vs $. Keep in mind, that if the iraq crisis get harder, $ will fall against mark. The we may see 0.6! which is the point I would bet the farm on it. Paul

To: tekgk who wrote (9)	11/8/1997 5:24:00 AM
From: Mr. Jens Tingleff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 226

RE: <If the Euro is even mildly successful it will put downward pressure on the dollar.> Why do you think that ? --------- Re: Recent drop - Did anyone think about how the CNN looking 10 years back over a weeks programmes made impact. Millions of investors sees such a program - Certainly all the players in the asiatic area. - And they are players (In an european casino you will se more asians than you thought was present in the town). Such a CNN series did IMO make those peopple afraid - IMHO that was what started it. Sure there are a lot of other bearish points in the ecomomic out there. But the lavine comes from private investors IMO. And today they will all think that they did good. Another thing that IMO will make less money available for investing in todays markets will be the opening in china. There is the need for a lot of funding. This will IMO mean that we should be careful about stocks with high PE and high Price for internal value. The gains in those over the past would be used (they will be sold) to invest in the new markets. Growth stocks hmm.. depending on how and in which businessareas China domestic companies will be able to provide competition. When I say domestic I mean that west owned companies in China will not suffer as they are controlled (I hope). There are a lot of ecomechanical parameters on which a lot of very educated advisors and opinion creators makes their statements - But IMHO the basics is still: Investment money available price will rise - No investment money available prices will go down. Now another point to be wacthing is tax-reductable savings - As long as there is tax-reductable savings the money to invest is increasing. When there is a change there it will make significant impact on available money for investment. Br Jens T