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Strategies & Market Trends : Investing during a Bear Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul M. Rengier who wrote (15)	11/8/1997 10:02:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 226

Paul: I agree with you, the Euro will be closer the weakest component. Furthermore, I think that some "black money" will take some time to be recycled into the Euro and integrated into the common money. That may cause another small "dislocation". Finally, any major change like that has "losers" and "winners" at the margins, and readjustment to a new equilibrium of capital flow will cause additional economic dislocations. I do not think that Europe and the Euro will be a good place to hide through any such transition. Just my two cents. Zeev

To: Paul M. Rengier who wrote (15)	11/8/1997 4:15:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 226

Paul, what is your perspective on the recent German unemployment numbers now running at levels greater than any since 1945? Any slippage in exports to the Far East, So.America or other countries experiencing severe stock market declines make further German GDP growth vulnerable, no? Would appreciate your outlook. Thanks in advance. PS: I also did not like the UK rate hike this week and am now not discounting a US rate hike of 25 basis points, not the usual 50 bp bump, by the Fed. Such a slight nudge up would demonstrate continuing inflation resolve by Mr.Greenspan but might get him "off the hook" relative to associated severe declines in US equities. He can sit back and say "I told you so" about equity valuation and watch with caution the resultant rally in bonds that may eventually help cushion the stock market decline.