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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kumar Nathan who wrote (10529)	11/8/1997 12:23:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Kumar, IMO,if it breaks through $33 (the $$ of the bull support line) like I posted then Big Buck's buy range of 24 may be reached. However, those who have watched this thread must realize that amat is very violatle and can reverse upward very quickly. The kep is to keep calm and hold. AMat and the explosive technology sector for the future has not changed. Patience will be well rewarded for those who hold and do not panic. Just ask Lester and Ricardo! Just my opinion. P{aul V.

To: Kumar Nathan who wrote (10529)	11/8/1997 12:32:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Kumar, Tito, Big Buck and Ricardo, what are your reactions to Cary's following post scenerio regarding the time sequence and conversion to smaller size and to the 300 (12) chip? > www4.techstocks.com >Paul, 0.25, 0.18, 0.13, 0.08, each require a "complete" set of new tools. The move to 300mm will likely occur while leading edge companies are moving to 0.18 and the majority are moving to 0.25. Sam raised the term standard deviation, and Tito has been talking about the Y0-Y0/Stairs pattern of the stock price. Both of these can be applied to earnings during the up cycle. Companies that sell a large number of low price products to a large number of customers have smooth growth curves. This is NOT the semi-equips. We know from Morgan's $10B in 2002 where the earnings will be in this uptrend. We just don't know when Tito's YO-YO will head down because of 300mm transitions, SE Asia problems, DRAM price declines, etc. We do know that AMAT is walking the stairs toward $10B. Think positively! Volatility gives traders action and long termers chances to apply additional cash!< Cary<

To: Kumar Nathan who wrote (10529)	11/8/1997 10:18:00 AM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Mr. Nathen I have been following your posts for 9 months, and they were a great help to me during the bull run, as I was persuaded by the facts contained within them to hold till the stock reached 100. I sold then, not because I disagreed with the long term story, but because the story was now in the stock price, and everything had become so forward looking. To me when people start talking about a stock being cheap if you look at what the Co. might earn in 4th Q '98, it's time to get off the bus, because the appearance of bad news is likely to create panic. So one could also say it was you that, perhaps unwittingly, convinced me to sell. Incidently I recntly bougth back my stock at 40 and 31 and therefore am $ cost averaged at around the current price, with a number of Nov 37.5s which were showing a 400% gain earlier this week, but which I held too long... not because they won't be worth more next week, but because I missed a rather obvious trade. I mention all this because I am confused by your recent posts. The week before last you predicted an end of week run up and you were rather specific as to the actual days the stock was going to make its move. I assume you have a model that throws off these expected results, however the stock actually declined. This week we have some very grand macro arguments why the stock should go down, with a disclaimer, that if none of the events you predict transpire the stock will move quite quickly to the upside. So my question is, as an investor, considering your model, considering the macro market situation, what steps have you taken, if any, to protect your gains in the stock (I presume from your posts you held throught the 45% correction) and how do you plan to trade given your belief that the stock will go as low as 31 early next week. Or are you just holding on to your nuts and hoping things don't work out the way that you've predicted. You see I beleive that for this thread to evolve into something more useful to us all, we should be sharing information about how we are trading to back up our opinions and the information about the company and the market we post. For example are you holding short term puts to protect the long position you hold in the stock... Would that be a valid stratergy that would reflect your beliefs. Or did you in fact sell at the peak to raise cash. You see opinion can only be judged and is only useful in so far as we know the circumstance of the poster. For example, a great many people bought into amat between 95 and 108. This much we know because amat traded a couple of hundred million shares at these prices. these people, unless they have sold, are planing to sell, or are crazy - are necesserily bullish, because they are holding to recover losses, or to revisit gains. Their bullishness must therefore be considered if not discounted. There are also shorts out there who feel that the stock has not corrected to value, and their bearish interest must also be considered if not discounted before evaluation. I guess what I'm saying is that the thread should have a convention whereby threaders state their interest, so that their fellow threaders can better evaluate their posts. EG akidron long 40, 31 and nov 37.5s @15/16 (no quantities) FYI IMHO two of the most oversold situations are IFMXE and Oxford. the IFMXE story is most compelling because it is apparrent that threatened NASDAQ delisting is not going to traspire, and they are announcing results (which can only be better than expected) and making forward looking projections on the 18th of this month. a kidron vlong IFMXE nov 7.5s Finally I'd like to thank Cary for his posts... they are thoughfull and informational, and semmingly straight up.

To: Kumar Nathan who wrote (10529)	11/8/1997 12:19:00 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Respond to of 70976

Kumar, It is a widespread belief among analysts that the lows we saw in the final days of Oct will be re-tested this month...a move that will enable those who missed the first low to load up on this second one. So it is possible that AMAT will briefly touch 31 before heading Up to the 50s where it belongs. Although most investors know that Alan Greenspan's hands are tied up so as not to raise interest rates on Wed (because of the currency crisis in South-east Asia), still many of them will be waiting for that "surprise" to happen. As for Saddam Hussein, it is customary for him to exercise his "crazy antics" at this time of the year to re-solidify his hold on his followers, at the same time help oil producing countries sell less oil for more money. The facts are:--- as the Hongkong and other markets around the world dip, our bond market rises; as our bonds dip, our stock market rises; as our stock market dips, the foreign stock markets rises; and the cycle is repeated---like a dog circling and circling in the same spot as he tries to catch his own tail. We are now in a Global economy. INTC is a Global company whose action and non-action is being watched globally. Analysts re-discovered yesterday (in the company's conference with Analysts) that cutting prices to be competitive is a good idea after all; that making more of the chips that are selling the most is the way to go to maintain profitability...The problem of INTC is how to make chips cheaper. One way to attain this is to make the chips where labor is cheaper and how to make more of them. South-east Asia is the best place right now for cheaper labor; To make more of them?---AMAT is there with its machines, more willing to help!... I see AMAT "sneaking" its way Up to the 50s before Earnings time.