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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (44960)	8/19/2010 11:54:33 AM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

Re: "And a .25% decrease means the problems much worse than the projections assume." WHAT? (You expecting real growth to average 1.75%? Did our demographics turn into Japan or Italy over-night? Our natural resources vanish? :-) Re: "It could go either way." You mean: growth higher or lower then 2% real. Well, sure! Of course! Anything is possible when talking about the future. (All I can say though is that 2% is mighty low and conservative estimate when compared to the US's HISTORICAL (modern times) real average of more like 3.5%! Re: "Its not reasonably to just assume extra economic growth that lasts for decades." Never said it was, And, now that you bring it up, neither is it "reasonable" necessarily to assume extra low growth. <GGG> The proof of the pudding (as per always) is in the eating. We have to SECURE such stronger growth by appropriate policies --- nothing new about that. The point I was making earlier was that the projections of 'Social Security deficits' showing up by 2035 or 2037 or whatever are highly dependent upon the assumptions made for the national economic growth rates. The SLIGHTEST of upticks to the SS actuaries' very conservative assumption of only 2% real growth would wipe away the entire projected shortfall. (One thing we do have on our side --- versus, say, China --- is a much more favorable demographic profile. Birth and immigration rates in the US are much higher, much more conducive to higher growth after 2020 then their's are. Get just a few other things 'right' --- tax reforms, deficits reduced, etc. --- and the future looks very much more bright and 'higher than 2% growth' looks QUITE obtainable.)