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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (45095)	8/21/2010 12:07:56 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

Re: [That is EXACTLY what the economic analysis PREDICTED would happen at the BEGINNING of the decade, and they were proved correct.] "Not exactly." Yes, exactly! ALL THREE of the big econometric analysis that were run (making projections for the next decade) early in the first term for Bush II when he was trying to get his tax changes (and that year's budget) through Congress --- the CBO analysis, Bush administration's own GAO analysis and the private econometrics firm (Trend Macrolytics) hired by the Bush WH to perform a "dynamic analysis" specifically assuming Laffer Curve growth benefits from the lower taxes (unlike the other two big budget analysis which - as mandated by law - can only use static analysis techniques) ALL THREE" came up with basically the same projected paths: ...all THREE of the WH economic analysis projections that were commissioned back when Bush was pushing for his tax changes in the early 'nineties) came) to the exact same general conclusion, that the Bush tax and budget choices resulted in: 1) higher economic growth in the first half of the decade, 2) but that effect dwindled away by the middle of the decade and was thereafter over-balanced by the negative effects of the rising deficits, 3) and from mid-decade ON economic growth was LOWER then it otherwise would have been had none of those changes been implemented. 4) and, by the end of the decade, at the end of the second term, growth would be strongly* lower. And so it came to pass. Exactly as all three econometric analysis had projected. FAILURE to get ever-rising deficit spending under control overwhelmed all of the benefits from the tax changes and produced a decade of lower growth and economic vitality than we would have otherwise experienced, absent the tax and budget choices that were made. (By the way --- was one of the most amazingly accurate sets of long-range economic projections I've ever seen. Especially since there were three completely different rule sets used for them....)