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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (9379)	11/9/1997 10:06:00 AM
From: Elllk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ <<The end of the industrial revolution began the depression because there was an excess of companies, not an excess of inventories as recession.>> This is a cogent and interesting suggestion and seems valid. And at present there does seem to be at least an excess of computer companies. So lets look at the time frame. You give about 60 years for the Industrial Revolution so that leaves us initially with when did the Computer Revolution start. There are several possible candidates. Here they are with the time spans since: 1936 - When when Turing published "On Computable Numbers" and Shannon showed a link between symbolic logic and electrical circuits. (61 yr) 1943 - When the building of Eniac was commissioned (0r 1945 when it was completed. (54 or 52 yrs) 1947 - When the transistor was invented. (50 yrs) 1948 - When the first microchip was developed. (49 yrs) 1951 - LEO the first business computer. (46 yrs) 1952 - When UNIVAC was used by Cronkite to predict Ike's win. (45 yrs) 1957 - (One of my favorites and certainly notable) The use of the Mathematical Analyzer, Numerator, Integrator, and Computer (at least as termed by von Neumann) to help develop the hydrogen bomb. von Neumann's point being the machines acronym MANIAC (40 yrs) ETC. So, depending on definition we could be past, at, or close to 59 yrs and counting. But even if we take a date like 1965 or 1970 (37 or 32 yrs) we would have to consider the possibility that it is not number of years but number of product cycles that is most important. And the Computer Revolution has dramatically cut the length of time in product cycles. I do not have the data or knowledge to figure out how many product cycles occurred in the Industrial Revolution or so far in the Computer Revolution but I would be very interested in any educated guesses you or anyone has about the numbers of product cycles. Caveat of course being that while these points seem interesting and valid to us we may be barking up the wrong tree. Larry