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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (39020)	9/3/2010 12:28:38 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78462

re PWE - the oil sands project has been talked about since 2005, as far as I remember - so far not much has happened. I assume it's not economical at this point. based on current reserves, PWE is quite a bit overvalued: 341M BOE (crude) x 15$=5.1B$ 938 BCF (NG) x1.5=1.4B$ Total is 6.5B$ but EV is 11B$, so i think it's overvalued quite a bit. the infill plan looks interesting but it will also cost Capex, I want to see the economics there to see where it get's them. Note Slide 19, on which they basically admitting that their F&D costs are near the top. Once all those tax credit expire (some royalty will kick in as soon as 2010 and then the Trust fund status will revert in 2013) then yields will go down and those Trusts will be valued just like any other E&P. Based on the metrics it seems that they are not worth more than 15$/share, maybe even less.

To: E_K_S who wrote (39020)	9/9/2010 7:32:23 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78462

Re: Penn West Energy Trust (PWE) cnrp.marketwire.com Penn West Energy Trust Announces Plans for Corporate Conversion, Increases to Capital Program, and Changes to Monthly Distributions 1) Cutting Monthly distribution from $0.15 per unit per month to $0.09 per unit per month. 2) Horizontal drilling Results "exceeded expectations". From the article:"...Drilling results to-date have exceeded expectations. Two of our most recent wells, drilled approximately 70 kilometers apart, had initial test flow rates in excess of 2,000 bbls of light oil per day. One of these wells was in Willesden Green and delivered first month average production of 860 boe per day. Penn West believes these results are not confined to a specific part of the Cardium, but are indicative of opportunities across the trend. Our current inventory of approximately 3,000 locations and our growing experience in the use of horizontal technology provides us with confidence that we can consistently meet and/or exceed our previously published type curve expectations. ..." 3) Drilling in the Waskada fields exceeds expectations too. From the article:"...In the Waskada / Goodlands Amaranth play in southwest Manitoba, much like in the Cardium trend, our recent results have exceeded expectations. Recently we drilled and completed what we believe is a groundbreaking well in the area. After an innovative 40-stage fracture, this well has been put on production without artificial lift at a rate of approximately 200 boe per day. This significant well is producing at a level 2.0x – 2.5x our typical type curve for the area.... =============================================================== Stock traded on 4x it's average volume and after opening down 6% ended up for the day. The company will ramp up it's light oil resource plays (using horizontal drilling technology) for Q4 2010 by $150 million. 85% of their 2011 capital program ($1.0 - $1.2 billion ) will be allocated to this area next year too. By the end of 2011, they should have a better accounting of their actual "proved" reserves AFTER completing the horizontal drilling technology on several of their properties. EKS