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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3342)	11/9/1997 7:46:00 PM
From: molemania	Respond to of 10921

Cary - Did you or anyone see the analyst from Hambricht & Quist (sp?) late Friday concerning the Intel conference? He said that Intel said they would spend on capital equipment for '98 "in line" with market growth, which he said was bullish for the semi equips. Did most people already figure this or is this a surprise? Thanks Dave

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3342)	11/9/1997 7:49:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Hi Cary I've been buying and selling the semis for 2 years now...KLIC-KLAC-AMAT etc...I live in Phila near KLIC and know the co very well...I trade the stock all the time... While I can foresee problems with capital equipment purchases being curtailed at some point next year...It has not happened at this Moment.. The co announces eps on Fri before the open, the Point & Figure chart looks ready for a pop to 35 and over, after dipping to 27=28 maybe tommarrow.. I'd be curious as to your feelings on the semi-equip makers with ties to Asia...KLIC gets paid in US dollars, and of course is selling to THE biggest and the best in that part of the world... Also I loved AMAT's CEO on 2 occasions dead panned any reporters questions about the current debacle...He looked very bullish, and very serious about it...They announce on the 20th.. One more piece of info..NSM, very strong stock and co...CEO was smiling like a cheshire cat...He's booked till 2002!!!! Enjoy everyones posts here, My Regards, Jerry

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3342)	11/9/1997 9:37:00 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Cary, "I don't doubt that "winners can afford to compensate losers", but in what dream world of yours DO winners ACTUALLY compensate losers?" Economists seek Pareto optimality, which exists whenever the gains outweigh the losses. It's also called a "positive sum game". Compensation is nice because it can smooth social tensions and may win votes, but is not strictly required by neoclassical economics, which generally remains aloof from such welfare and distributional issues. Compensation of losers is sometimes imbedded into policies that consider issues of equity and not merely efficiency. Different governments do different things to soften the blow for "sunset industry" victims. Some subsidize retraining. Others provide welfare. Some have highly progressive tax codes where almost the entire burden of taxation is borne by the rich. I don't think losers are ever adequately compensated, but such compensation may in itself create a moral hazard by making people think they may be buffered and insulated from the realities of life and the consequences of their own decisions. I do not presume that people really "decide" on the basis of perfect information to become unskilled laborers rather than C++ or Java programmers. Nevertheless, policy makers consult economists who are paid to think about these kinds of things. SC