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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mac Con Ulaidh who wrote (82086)	9/5/2010 5:12:42 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 149317

Quantifying the Enthusiasm Gap We hear about the enthusiasm gap all the time, usually in pretty abstract terms. Here it is in black and white: in 10 key races for Senate and Governor in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri it's costing Democratic candidates (or Charlie Crist) an average of 7 points on the margin. If the folks planning to turn out this year matched the 2008 electorate: -Alex Sink running for Governor in Florida and Alexi Giannoulias running for the Senate in Illinois would have double digit leads. -Elaine Marshall running for Senate in North Carolina and Pat Quinn running for Governor in Illinois would have small leads instead of trailing. -Ted Strickland running for Governor in Ohio, Lee Fisher running for Senate in Ohio, Joe Sestak running for Senate in Pennsylvania, and Robin Carnahan running for Senate in Missouri would all be within three points rather than trailing by 7-10 as they do now. This year isn't getting away from the Democrats because voters are moving toward the Republicans en masse. But the enthusiasm gap is turning races that would otherwise be lean Democratic into toss ups, turning toss ups into leaning Republican, and turning leaning Republican into solid Republican. Here's the full data on all those races: Race Most Recent Poll 2010 Electorate Most Recent Poll w/2008 Electorate 2008 Result Enthusiasm Gap Impact Ohio Governor R+10 McCain +3 R+3 Obama +4 R+7 Ohio Senate R+7 McCain +3 R+2 Obama +4 R+5 NC Senate R+5 McCain +9 D+1 Obama +1 R+6 Florida Governor D+7 McCain +3 D+12 Obama +3 R+5 Florida Senate R+8 McCain +3 R+4 Obama +3 R+4 Penn Gov R+13 McCain +1 R+6 Obama +10 R+7 Penn Sen R+9 McCain +1 Tied Obama +10 R+9 Illinois Governor R+9 Obama +9 D+1 Obama +25 R+10 Illinois Senate D+2 Obama +9 D+13 Obama +25 R+11 Missouri Senate R+7 McCain +7 R+1 Tied R+6 publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com