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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Little Joe who wrote (144959)	9/22/2010 11:57:50 AM
From: KyrosL	Respond to of 542853

" wishful thinking" I am a centrist. I don't do wishful thinking. Here are the latest Gallup numbers on the subject: "Generic Ballot Virtually Tied: Democrats 46%, Republicans 45% Republicans losing strength in September compared with August by Frank Newport PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's generic ballot for Congress for the week of Sept. 13-19 shows a 46% Democratic and 45% Republican split in registered voters' preferences for the midterm congressional elections. It is the second week out of the last three in which the two parties have been virtually tied. March-September 2010 Trend: Vote Preferences in 2010 Congressional Elections, Based on Registered Voters Gallup's tracking shows a shift from a 49% to 43% Republican advantage in August to a 46% to 45% GOP advantage so far in September. Both of these estimates are based on very large samples, with more than 7,000 interviews conducted in August and more than 5,600 so far in September. August and September 2010 Vote Preferences in 2010 Congressional Elections, Based on Registered Voters Regardless of these modest shifts in voting intentions, Republicans remain significantly more likely than Democrats to say they are "very" enthusiastic about voting in this year's midterm elections. Registered Voters' Enthusiasm About Voting in 2010, March-September 2010 Trend The enthusiasm gap this past week was 19 percentage points, with 47% of Republicans very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 28% of Democrats. Republicans have enjoyed at least a 10-point advantage on this measure since Gallup began tracking congressional election preferences in March, including margins of 16 points or higher since August. Given this continuing enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, even a tie in registered voters' preferences will almost certainly mean the Republicans will garner the most votes on Election Day. Bottom Line Republicans have so far this month lost a little of the unprecedented strength they had among registered voters in August. Voting intentions among registered voters from Sept. 1-19 show a virtual tie between Republicans and Democrats, which is down from the six-point Republican advantage in August. Gallup will begin estimating the voting preferences of the probable 2010 electorate in October, which is highly likely to show a larger Republican advantage than is seen among registered voters. The pace of midterm congressional election campaigning is beginning to pick up, both at the individual district level, and in terms of national news emphasis. Last week's primary elections, for example, focused news attention on the potential impact of more conservative, Tea Party-backed Republican candidates on the general election. It is possible that further shifts in voter sentiment will be seen in the weeks ahead." gallup.com

To: Little Joe who wrote (144959)	9/22/2010 12:26:57 PM
From: Katelew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 542853

I understand your confusion. It happens when people equate the economy with the stock market. Just because the market is moving up or down, doesn't mean the economy is improving or deteriorating. But one thing happening right now that is confusing everything is this. The recession is declared over because business is expanding. In the aggregate, corporate America (which is actually in great shape as I pointed out to you before) is hiring and expanding. Sales are growing. The problem is that much of this is happening OFFSHORE. Physical plant and equipment is being built in other countries. Citizens of those countries are being hired....etc., etc. Will all this offshore expansion benefit American worker? Yes, but it will be in sort of a trickle down fashion. After a hundred foreign workers are hired, maybe one American manager out of the 500 applicants will be hired to oversee the foreign workers, for example. So the recession is offically over because business is expanding again, not contracting, but how much will the overall American economy expand along with this? And how fast? Those are the questions. As you pointed out, many people will be left out completely of this recovery. However, declaring the recession over should help Dems at the polls because that simple statement gives people hope. I actually am beginning to think that what's going on in individual states is driving the elections in those states right now. Possible moreso than likes or dislikes of Obama and his signature legislative pieces.