random just in in-tray stuffing
player 1: There was a place in Knoxville that I wanted to buy a few years ago that was selling for $2 million when gold was $400 per ounce. That meant the place was going for 5,000 ounces of gold.
It recently sold for $1.6 million when gold was $1,280 per ounce. That means it sold for a mere 1,250 ounces of gold.....a 75% drop!
I wonder if I should look to buy it at 1,000 ounces of gold or be greedy and wait to buy it for 500 ounces of gold? <g>
player tj: Be greedy, expect additional 98% drop of referenced knoxville property against referenced gold, but strike the deal at minus 80% level. We will get there, else hk blows up.
player 1: Holy moly.... Got gold? And don't be short anything! He's firmly in the Marc Faber camp now!
zerohedge.com
SNIP:
Recently the debate over when QE2 will occur has taken a back seat over the question of what the implications of the Fed's latest intervention in monetary policy will be, as it is now certain that Bernanke will attempt a fresh round of monetary stimulus to prevent the recent deceleration in the economy from transforming into outright deflation. Whether or not the Fed will decide to engage in QE2 on its November 3 meeting, or as others have suggested December 14, and maybe even as far out as January 25, the actual event is now a certainty. And while many have discussed this topic in big picture terms, most notably David Tepper, who on Friday stated that no matter what, stocks will benefit from QE2, few if any have actually considered what the impact of QE2 will be on the Fed's balance sheet, and how the change in composition in Fed assets will impact all marketable asset classes. We have conducted a rough analysis on how QE2 will reshape the Fed's balance sheet. We were stunned to realize that over the next 6 months the Fed may be the net buyer of nearly $3 trillion in Treasurys, an action which will likely set off a chain of events which could result in rates dropping all the way to zero, stocks surging, and gold (and other precious metals) going from current price levels to well in the 5 digit range.
A Question of Size
One of the main open questions on QE2, is how large the Fed's next monetization episode will be. This year's most prescient economist, Jan Hatzius, has predicted that the minimum floor of Bernanke's next intervention will be around $1 trillion, which of course means that he likely expects a materially greater final outcome from a Fed that is known for "forceful" action. Others, such as Bank of America's Priya Misra, have loftier expectations: "We expect the size of QE2 to be at least as much as QE1 in terms of duration demand." As a reminder, QE1, when completed, resulted in the repurchase of roughly $1.7 trillion in Treasury and MBS/Agency securities. It is thus safe to assume that the Fed's QE2 will likely amount to roughly $1.5 trillion in outright security purchases. However, as we will demonstrate, this is far from the whole story, and the actual marginal purchasing impact will be substantially greater.
player tj: Am on bus ride homeward bound, and am giddy with anticipation for qe2.
Issue: at what point do we leverage? At what do we leverage?
player 1:Any comments on these "smart mortgages?"
bochk.com
Seems like this does nothing except encourage people to buy more flats and leverage more! I am told that this type of mortgage is wildly popular in the Mainland.
player tj: the schema may encourage home ownership per limits of down payment requirement (30-50%). probably not available for 2nd - nth homes. and otherwise astutely encourages cash savings per imperative to keep interest cost under control, so little would be lost to the crazier stock market. bullish. to be commended. had team usa adopted same approach, the GFC would be LFC.
player 2: Apparently the ft says gold is oversold...
Europe’s central banks halt gold sales By Jack Farchy in Berlin Published: September 26 2010 22:08 | Last updated: September 26 2010 22:08 Europe’s central banks have all but halted sales of their gold reserves, ending a run of large disposals each year for more than a decade.
The central banks of the eurozone plus Sweden and Switzerland are bound by the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which caps their collective sales.
In the CBGA’s year to September, which expired on Sunday, the signatories sold 6.2 tonnes, down 96 per cent, according to provisional data.
The sales are the lowest since the agreement was signed in 1999 and well below the peak of 497 tonnes in 2004-05.
The shift away from gold selling comes as European central banks reassess gold amid the financial crisis and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.
In the 1990s and 2000s, central banks swapped their non- yielding bullion for sovereign debt, which gives a steady annual return. But now, central banks and investors are seeking the security of gold.
The lack of heavy selling is important for gold prices both because a significant source of supply has been withdrawn from the market, and because it has given psychological support to the gold price. On Friday, bullion hit a record of $1,300 an ounce.
“Clearly now it’s a different world; the mentality is completely different,” said Jonathan Spall, director of precious metals sales at Barclays Capital.
European central banks are unlikely to sell much more gold in the new CBGA year, according to a survey by the Financial Times.
player tj: given the math of gold in ozs, it is neither oversold nor over bought, and is also not over owned or under owned.
it has simply been shuffled around, in alignment with reassessment of imperatives,
at some price, one could command half a swimming pool of gold and still feel short gold
at some other price, one could hold a few grams floating in pink champaign held up to the flickering candle light, and be sated knowing that will be better in this galaxy
gold is useless 99.99 % of times
getgold
0.01% this way comes
player 3: This is still rough form. But our Taiwan weather girls are coming to an internet screen near you with daily web updates. Pls see below. Should be fun,,,
player tj: We like Taiwan, and girls, even at 5:13am.
xxxx [player 3], where are you these days living n working?
player 3: I am all over. I am in taiwan this week. family is in a serviced apartment in New Jersey. I am working on closing a home, but it is simply exhausting. I am buying a house as I want the interest deduction, but these fricking clowns ask for every damn document you can think off. I sold some gold, only about USD $20,000 and they want to see the paper trail. I sold to a friend and put in cash as a counter deposit. HSBC gives me a good citizen letter and shit,,, these guys give me a hard time... I am so pissed... (oh god, if china would just stop beating up disidents i would joing up)... Hope you and family are okay...
player tj: all is well on this end. my son, 36 days young, seems so far to be a calmer version of my daughter at the same age, a blessing for now.
hong kong is at what i believe to be the starting stages of a bubble. i say starting because people seem shy about leverage, and without leverage, hong kong should not be considered bubbly, regardless of how high the prices go, especially if half the buyers are not of hk.
re the communist, i too would vote for them if i thought anyone such as i, an anarchist capitalist wannabie, deserves to be able to vote.
as and when you are in hk, please shout beforehand so that we can organize a boyz lunch around you and take in the news flow. |