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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: robert b furman who wrote (10513)9/28/2010 11:20:03 AM
From: Hawkmoon3 Recommendations  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 220668
 
Seems like buying a stock market at a bottom when the currency also bottoms would be the ultimate ride up in real money profits??

It would seem so, but I think in this market where we were so close to the edge of a H&S breakdown, and with retail investors bailing out of their equity mutual funds, the only way to make it go up is to make the dollar go down.

Effectively, when taking in the recent decline in the dollar, the markets haven't really gone up much at all.

The dollar index was at 88 back in May, when the Flash Crash occurred. It's now at 79, or a bit more than 10% decline:

fxstreet.com

The S&P hit 1040 in May and has been climbing back ever since, as the Dollar index has fallen over that same period of time.
It's currently up about 10% from that low.

Coincidence?

So in real value terms, the markets haven't gained anything.

Hawk



To: robert b furman who wrote (10513)9/28/2010 1:12:54 PM
From: Wayners  Respond to of 220668
 
Weak dollar is good for U.S. companies, sales and profits and being able to export more of our junk overseas, while at the same time rising the cost of transportation of that junk due to higher oil prices. Just a guess but I think added sales and profits far exceed transportation cost increases. The currency bottoming this isn't necessarily good for stocks and as long as you don't buy inflated junk from overseas and buy real assets here with any gains, you are way ahead in real money profits.