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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (5688)	10/12/2010 12:48:07 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 10065

This is not true at all. "WHAT SPECIFIC SIGNS WILL CONVINCE YOU that most everyone who could move the stock market down in any significant way are already out of the market (have already sold out most all of their equity holdings). " Do you understand how the flash crash happened? All it would take to move the market lower is for a major institutional holder to dump a huge sell order of S&P futures on the market without a ready buyer of the same size there to take all shares offered. Heck, Buffett could move the market down SIGNIFICANTLY if he had a mild, secret stroke that changed his personalty and for some reason he decided to sell his massive holdings at whatever price he could get. All the Buffett followers would see this and follow suit. Heck, I'd pay more attention to that than Brinker's nonsense as Buffett, like me, had cash at the 2008 and 2009 lows to add significantly to positions where Brinker was a raging bull at the top with a gift horse buy at 1450. Do I believe this crash will happen? Not probable but it is possible.

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (5688)	10/12/2010 7:29:43 PM
From: marc ultra	3 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10065

< WHAT SPECIFIC SIGNS WILL CONVINCE YOU that most everyone who could move the stock market down in any significant way are already out of the market (have already sold out most all of their equity holdings). I think we had that kind of thing near the March '09 and more recent correction bottoms where bearish sentiment and general negativity was extreme even at a time when the kind of market fundamentals that Bob uses were extremely bullish. That extreme situation is gone now that we've had a big run off the correction bottom. We're up about 150 S&P points and over a thousand Dow points off the correction bottom which is a big run. I think we'll go higher because fundamentals are still very good and I imagine some retail investors will throw some money back in the US market while kicking and screaming. But if you're asking me if this looks a complete green light safe time for the market all I can say is I feel that way when everyone is scared, the market is tanking and valuation and other factors are compelling. Fundamentals are still pretty positive but I can't say it's safer now than when stocks where a lot lower. The bottom line though is the choices for money are limited. CDs and Treasuries pay next to nothing. Investment grade bonds pay very little considering the interest rate risk you have to take with rates at all time lows so the only thing left is stocks or something like gold or commodities. The only way I might get interested in gold is if we have runaway inflation and not just some idiot on the TV talking about it while we have near zero inflation. Commodities don't interest me at this time. So it's sort of stocks or sit with near zero interest. Near zero interest can make sense if you're more concerned with just preserving capital but as I think I noted in the recent past I sold one of the bond funds in a largely fixed income portfolio I handle for an elderly relative and put that in SDY which is the S&P dividend ETF and so far it's both gone up a bunch and paid a decent quarterly dividend distribution so so far so good. Most of the rest of the money is in floating rate note funds and a convertible bond fund (which should do fine if interest rates rise), an and some in good high yield funds which have had a big run as credit spreads have come in. The fact is the Fed is telling people they don't want you to hoard your money but they want you to spend and take a little risk. Everyone has to do what they feel is right for their personal situation and risk tolerance but I have no reason to fight the Fed but will take advantage of what they're doing. <Do you see the current lower levels in daily market volume as a valid sign we are approximately at this point? I really don't care much about volume anymore. What does it mean when supercomputers running algorithms to scalp a fraction of a cent are accounting for a big bunch of volume? Retail may come back to an extent but It's probably less likely we'll see the type of buying panic volume surge we could see before retail largely left the market. So I may be interested in volume when we have what looks like a major top or bottom but otherwise I no longer pay much attention to it. Marc