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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Curlton Latts who wrote (8978)	11/11/1997 8:29:00 AM
From: Steven Angelil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Anyone that follows Bollinger Bands, have a look at this chart:http://207.95.154.130/chart/default.exe?PERIOD=60&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=bb&volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=cymi Notice how we have not closed below the lower BB. This suggests that we are in the lower part of the trading range, but that we are still IN the range, not below it. If you do not follow the BB's, the lower green line is said to be support. If the stock closes BELOW this line, it should continue down. The next resistence is the red line. Two ways to look at this: 1.Bullish-we still have not broken support. I know this sounds funny, but look at the chart. 2.Bearish-we could have much further to fall if we close below the lower band. Who knows what will happen. Steve

To: Curlton Latts who wrote (8978)	11/11/1997 11:42:00 AM
From: Elwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Nice Post Curly. The engineer has a pretty good web site as well. I am dying on the vine, still long and a believer, but this is getting to me. I hope we have not misplaced our beliefs. E

To: Curlton Latts who wrote (8978)	11/11/1997 10:02:00 PM
From: Tulvio Durand	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

Curly, your prognosis of $65 for CYMI in the not too distant future is insupportable. And the short sellers whom you blame for the stock's decline are, at most, exarcebating an already precarious short-term situation. The facts: 1. Decelerating Q earnings: 0.24 [97Q2], 0.23 [97Q3}, 0.22E [97Q4], 0.20E [98Q1]. It is not until 98Q2 that earnings are projected to increase, and then only to 0.25, which would make it one cent better than the year ago quarter [97Q2]. 2. P/E remains high even after the stock's price slump. P/E = 26.6 based on today's closing price of 19 11/16 and trailing 4Q earnings of 0.74. P/E = 20.5 based on next 4Q's earnings estimates of 0.96. One year growth rate = [0.98-0.74]/0.74 = 32.4%. PEG = 26.6/32.4 = 0.82, -- not quite the bargain people look for, ie., PEG < 0.5. 3. Analyst downgrades in the last month: from strong buy [3], buy [1], -- to buy [1], hold [3]. Zacks rates CYMI as a sell (actually Zacks' rating improved from "strong sell" to "sell" in this last week). 4. Street perception is that Cymi has a lot of Asian market exposure, which it does, and that its principal customer, Nikon, is having production problems, which is also true. Regardless of Nikon progress that you indicate, it has pushed out taking delivery of Cymer lasers. 5. Stock has broken through all resistance levels and is in free fall. I am still long, but much less so after today. Regards, Tulvio