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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin who wrote (28163)	11/11/1997 12:59:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Kevin You posted your formulas on how you derive your basic points. However, what are you using to determine what the "Break" point will be for market direction. Also Have you been using the bond points in conjunction with the SPZ and SPX.....except for today of course. I suppose not since we seem to be decoupled from the bond market at the moment. I still dont have a handle on what you and Nemer are looking at when determining to make a trade I.E. Nemers 868 point at which he would buy OEX calls which was below his 869 SUPPORT in a quickly falling market (might not have been able to sell at points he would have tried to sell if the trade went against him..it didnt though, thank goodness.. )and your points yesterday. While it went below your points both on the SPX and SPZ...it really didnt go down that much and with the spreads on these options...was there really that opp to make money? Wasn't checking it yesterday so dont know. But I do know that on the SPX the spread becomes large with movement. EDIT:I dont have yesterdays points in front of me BUT was it just your pivot point that it went below or a "BREAK" point it went below...got to find that.. So there has to be another factor other than JUST your "break" point....or is it harder to get a handle on it at the moment SIMPLY because so many extraneous facts at one time ..that influence the traders... more than normal...well more than normal since you have been working with these indices.

To: Kevin who wrote (28163)	11/11/1997 1:31:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Kevin. I have another question for you. Ike has repeatedly indicated what the S&P "SHOULD" be at given a certain point in the Dow...I cant find a better example of what I am talking about at the moment other than this post...look towards the bottom. Obviously he meant "927" not "827". So do you have a correlation with what the S&P "SHOULD" be at.....and how does one come up really with the "SHOULD" Thanks Edit:...I think he is meaning where the S&P should be given the Dow (because of previous posts)...but i just reread this and maybe you could take it as where it should be with the bonds..i am not sure. To: +Bo surfs (13952 ) From: +IQBAL LATIF Tuesday, Nov 11 1997 2:41AM EST Reply #13954 of 13980 I think if you really want to pin the reason of so much pessimism it all stems from all kind of scnerios being painted- voltality is high and Techs are being batterred however the overall market needs to break this 910 support even to suspect we are going to see a double bottom or a low at 6900 intraday- for marketr to go thru that we need a major change in interest rates earning prospects or Fed Policy on none of these counts I see a major change ensuing- it is about market getting somekind of reassurance on capital adequacy of foreign banks moreover some confidence that Japanese have found a bottom and will rebound from there- this is not the first time SOX has been battered the last July 96 it went as low as 139 and since five months we have seen a consolidated run- Tech has lost appeal for investors I think that may be the case but if this market needs to break further you will notice Tranportation Banks Drugs and Oils to take out their 20 Days MA- if that happpens and you need to be very very nimble you can go for some protective action. I will strictly play by what for me are the rigours of this trade- first not to panic and second to observe the test of 910- before we talk about this bear market why not to take a minute and see where we stand. Normally S&P should already be at 890 not 827- for me bonds will soon give up alongwith that will come a better visiblity.