Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50273)	12/3/2010 5:00:06 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

Jacob, I like your charts, analysis and thinking about the probable outlook for the future. Now that the SOX has broken out of its range I thought 500 would be a good next target, but why not 550 as well. Once exuberance creeps into the cycle all possibilities are open. All caution to the wind I say.<g> We have had another good week , even though the first 2 days were negative, with the SOX breaking out into the open. The next charts will show the action. Don

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50273)	12/15/2010 6:34:31 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95383

Don, re your nirvana trading hypothetical: Message 27021865 Here's a simple method for taking advantage of the month-to-month saw-tooth pattern of the SOX: 1. Sell, in increments, whenever the SOX is setting new highs. 2. Buy, in increments, whenever the SOX is 10% or more off its highs. 3. At all other times, do nothing (this will be the hardest step to follow). During 2010, this method would have resulted in: Selling, in April (SOX 371 to 405), and in December (SOX 405 to 419). Buying, in February (SOX 334 to 310), and May to August (SOX 364 to 306). This will improve on BuyAndHold, which, for the SOX in 2010, is about +10% so far. This method won't make as much as your "nirvana method", but it has the advantage of working when you are unable to predict the near future. This method will work in almost any bull market. Even in the strongest bull markets, there are multiple pullbacks of at least 10%, and these pullbacks tend to overlap previous highs. ________________________________________________________ In 2010, there was more divergence between related stocks than usual. AMAT -4%, while NVLS +41%, is an example. ________________________________________________________ <Everyone is encouraged to contribute what they can> I appreciate that posters are tolerated here, whether they are longterm, shortterm, long, short, neutral, or confused (I've done all of those).