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To: Vol who wrote (5827)11/11/1997 10:03:00 PM
From: Spots  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14162
 
Naw, it's quiet because I was out of town. Though, come to
think of it, Herm is more subdued than usual bright spirit.

We must look at these setbacks pragmatically. I bought VVUS
higher than you (my nut is currently about 37.5--last I heard
yours was 32 or so). Let's figure this out. What's the real
next best move? I wonder. I'm pondering this. I must admit
I'm not too keen on selling 22.5s as Herm did; though I hope
he makes a good clump on it to stave off the margin man.

Spots



To: Vol who wrote (5827)11/12/1997 11:47:00 AM
From: Douglas Webb  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14162
 
Vol, you'll see/have seen my thoughts on UGLY in the UGLY thread. I had to sell out my INVN shares to prevent a margin call, taking a small loss. (Nut of $11.04, sold for $10.50) At the time, it was the smallest loss I could have incurred. Also, I haven't been entirely comfortable with INVN anyway.

Up until a few weeks ago, VectorVest was valuing INVN at $14.50 or so. With a nut of $11.04, that wasn't looking like a whole lot of growth potential. Their future revenues right now are based on an order backlog which should take about a year to fill, and bring in $47 million. That's sizable, but backlogged orders can be canceled. There's also no real guarantee that they'll have the capacity to handle the backlog as well as additional orders, which may prevent them from getting additional orders, which may go to competitors who have similar equipment and excess capacity.

On the other hand, INVN has had high growth, record-setting earnings, and is valued at over $17 now by VectorVest. So it may be a good bargin, once it stops falling. TA is definitely giving an oversold indication.

But like I said in the UGLY thread, I'm no analyst.

Doug.



To: Vol who wrote (5827)11/12/1997 7:02:00 PM
From: Herm  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 14162
 
Yeah, I have been quiet and waiting out this significant correction. I sometimes don't listen to news just to avoid getting freaked out by the "end of the world" gloomers. I have been CCing VVUS to chip away at lower my net cost basis. Slow and steady wins the race! What I think we are seeing is the end of the year house cleaning 1 1/2 months early. We may see a major January Effect in the small caps in 1998.